As H2 2015 begins, Goldman looks at so-called "grey swans" - known market risks that could prove particularly disruptive. From China credit risks to Russia and from rate volatility to Russia with Middle East tensions, cyber threats, and illiquidity-induced 'flash-crashes', the known-but-not-priced-in risks are rising... because - simply put - central bank omnipotence remains the narrative (for now).
Russia is fading as a risk quickly (much to Washington's chagrin) as China risk accelerates rapidly...
[7]
And over time...
[8]
And so while Janet keeps trying to talk down any rate hikes as 'priced-in' or not an issue, the market (and Goldman) clearly thinks differently as sees interest rate volatility as the biggest "grey swan" currently... and when the costs of capital vary dramatically, CFOs will tamp down their debt-financed buybacks...
Source: Goldman Sachs
