Yesterday she faced the wrath of Hensarling and Duffy in her Congressional hearing, [12]today Fed Chair Janet Yellen pops over to The Senate. We suspect the rhetoric will be a little less aggressive as traders are interested to see if she walks back her comments yesterday that appeared to signal more hawkish "sooner" rate hikes. Of course, the main event will be when Elizabeth Warren is unleashed...
The Fed has been doing its fair share of sucking up though...
When Yellen appeared in front of the House earlier this year, Republican lawmakers criticized her for spending more time with left-leaning politicians and organizations.
That is no longer the case.
Yellen met with 11 lawmakers in May, including nine Republicans. That compares to an average of around two lawmaker meetings per month previously, two-thirds of which were with Democrats. To date, the Fed chair has met with Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren six times, the most of any lawmaker.
Live Feed...Senate Feed will not begin until hearing starts
Yellen's prepared remarks will be the same (full statement here) [13]
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Here is the punchline from the horse's mouth:
The Committee will determine the timing of the initial increase in the federal funds rate on a meeting-by-meeting basis, depending on its assessment of realized and expected progress toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. If the economy evolves as we expect, economic conditions likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal funds rate target, thereby beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. Indeed, most participants in June projected that an increase in the federal funds target range would likely become appropriate before year-end. But let me emphasize again that these are projections based on the anticipated path of the economy, not statements of intent to raise rates at any particular time.
So what can destabilize the outlook? Apparently China and Greece continue to be in the crosshairs:
As always, however, there are some uncertainties in the economic outlook. Foreign developments, in particular, pose some risks to U.S. growth. Most notably, although the recovery in the euro area appears to have gained a firmer footing, the situation in Greece remains difficult. And China continues to grapple with the challenges posed by high debt, weak property markets, and volatile financial conditions.
But there could be good news, especially if the harsh snow we witnessed in June finally ends:
... economic growth abroad could also pick up more quickly than observers generally anticipate, providing additional support for U.S. economic activity. The U.S. economy also might snap back more quickly as the transitory influences holding down first-half growth fade and the boost to consumer spending from low oil prices shows through more definitively.
An excerpt from Bloomberg's prepared remarks [14]:
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said prospects are good for further improvement in the labor market and the economy, keeping the central bank on track for an interest-rate increase in 2015.
“If the economy evolves as we expect, economic conditions likely would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise the federal funds rate target,” Yellen said in testimony prepared for delivery Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington. She said Fed officials expect growth “to strengthen over the remainder of this year and the unemployment rate to decline gradually.”
Yellen, 68, again emphasized that the timing of the first rate rise in almost a decade is less important than the subsequent path of increases, which she said would be gradual. She said Fed forecasts for higher rates this year are projections and “not statements of intent to raise rates at any particular time.”
In the first of two scheduled days of testimony before Congress, Yellen repeated that the Fed will tighten policy when it sees more improvement in the labor market and is “reasonably confident” that inflation will head back toward 2 percent in the medium term.
Yellen’s testimony was similar to a speech she gave on July 10. She again acknowledged concerns over the situation in Greece and added China to her list of overseas risks.
Still, she sounded a note of optimism, saying that “economic growth abroad could also pick up more quickly than observers generally anticipate, providing additional support for U.S. economic activity.”
