To be sure, we’ve had our fair share of laughs at the expense of China’s newly-minted day traders.
Back in March, Bloomberg highlighted [14] a study which suggested that some 31% of new investors in China’s equity markets had an elementary school education or less. Shortly thereafter, we began to look at data from the China Securities Depository and Clearing Co which showed that [15] millions of new stock trading accounts were being created in China every single month. Once reports began to come in from the front lines of China’s inexorable equity rally, it became clear that (to say the least) not everyone pouring money into the SHCOMP and The Shenzhen was what you might call a "seasoned" investor.
From there, all it took was the suggestion from Bloomberg [16] that in some cases, Chinese housewives had traded in the crochet kit for technical analysis and the race was on to see who could come up with the most entertaining characterization of China’s day trading hordes. Although the mainstream media has been careful not to be terribly explicit in their ridicule, the increasingly hilarious pictures of bemused Chinese grandmas staring at ticker tapes that have appeared atop WSJ and Reuters articles betray the fact that everyone, everywhere sees the humor in a multi-trillion dollar stock bubble driven by margin-trading hairdressers.
Admittedly, all of the above was even more amusing on days when Chinese stocks closed red, as it became quickly apparent that many Chinese investors might not have fully appreciated the fact that stocks can go down as well as up.
In the good old days of the China stock rally (so, around two months ago), down days were few and far between and the outright confusion that reigned in the wake of a rare close lower served as a much needed comic interlude for the slow motion train wreck unfolding in the Aegean and, on the weekends, at various Euro summits.
However, once the unwind began in China’s CNY1 trillion backdoor margin lending channels, we couldn’t help but feel slightly sorry for the millions of Chinese who quickly went from bewildered to dejected after watching their life savings evaporate over the course of a brutal three week sell-off that totaled more than 30% on some exchanges.
Due to significant retail participation and due to the fact that the equity mania had served as a distraction for a nation coping with decelerating economic growth and a bursting property bubble, some (and we were among the first) began to suggest that the broader economy, and indeed, social stability, may be at risk in China if stocks continued to fall.
The extent to which this suggestion represented a real concern (as opposed to the ravings of a tin foil hat fringe blog) was underscored by the extraordinary measures [17] China adopted in a desperate attempt to stop the bleeding and later by several sellside strategists who began to warn about possible spillovers [18] into the real economy.
Now, with Beijing still struggling to restore the stock bubble, the first signs of knock-on effects are beginning to emerge. Here’s Nikkei with more [19]:
Turbulence on China's equity market is starting to rock the country's property market. Investors are quickly pulling their cash out of housing they purchased to cover losses incurred by stock investments. Some have begun offering discounts on property due to difficulties with finding buyers. Continued turmoil on the stock market looks as though it will have a heavy impact on the country's real estate market.
China's stock market rally also helped drive up sales of domestic homes. The Shanghai Composite Index surged 60% from its low of around 3,200 in early March, rising to 5,166 logged on June 12. China Securities Depository and Clearing said that the number of accounts opened to trade yuan-denominated A-shares reached 980,000 in May in Shenzhen, where property prices are climbing faster than other areas. The figure accounted for roughly 80% of the total 1170,000 accounts in Guangdong Province, where large numbers of such account holders reside.
Many newbie investors, who have just jumped into the stock market, likely gave a fresh impetus to the property market. China's share price upswing prompted investors to reach out for new investments, including houses and other properties. A property analyst at major Chinese brokerage Guotai Junan Securities said that sales of luxury properties worth over 10 million yuan ($1.61 million) each for the first half of the year topped annual sales last year in Shanghai and Beijing.
After this, Chinese stocks began to crumble. In early July, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped more than 30%, after hitting a seven-year high in mid-June. Investors who suffered big losses on the stock market were forced to sell property and cancel real estate purchase agreements. The Hong Kong Economic Times said that consumers are increasingly asking real estate firms for grace periods on down payments for mortgage loans, as they run out of cash because of weak stocks.
Some canceled home purchase contracts, while others canceled mortgage loans, according to China's largest property developer China Vanke, which has a strong foothold in Shenzhen. Local media reported that an official at China Vanke is concerned about massive numbers of cancellations in the future.
So no, the damage isn't "contained" and indeed it's somewhat ironic that the first place the contagion is showing up is in China's property market. What's particularly interesting here is that one argment for why the collapse of China's equity bubble would not spill over into the real economy revolved around the fact that the majority of Chinese household wealth is concentrated in real estate. "Ultimately, we think the impact of the sell-off in Chinese equities on the real economy will be relatively limited. This is because equities are only 10% of household wealth (at peak; just over 5% at the turn of the year)," Credit Suisse noted last week.
If, however, what Nikkei says about the knock-on effect in property is true, it could put further pressure on an already fragile housing market. On that note, we'll close with the following excerpt which is, ironically, from the same Credit Suisse note cited above.
House prices are now falling at a record annual rate – the first time they have fallen without it being policy induced. With housing accounting for just over half of total household assets, the negative wealth impact could be significant.
