When even Jon Hilsenrath is clueless what the Fed is trying to say, we go with old faithful, the company that runs the NY Fed, Goldman Sachs. Here is Jan Hatzius' take.
The statement following today's FOMC meeting made relatively few changes compared to June, and did not affect our view that the first rate hike is most likely to occur in December. The most notable change was the addition of the word "some" in the committee's description of desired progress in the labor market. Specifically, the June FOMC statement said that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates "when it has seen further improvement in the labor market" (and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to two percent). Today's statement said that rate hikes would be appropriate after "some further improvement in the labor market". This change indicates that the committee requires a smaller cumulative improvement in labor market slack before liftoff. But the new language is a small tweak and does not suggest, in our view, that Fed officials are reading recent labor market developments in a wholly different way.
So if your read of the word "some" is different from Goldman's read of the word "some", then surely drama is about to unfol,d like for example that of Jefferies economists which amusing said "Addition of word “some” into forward guidance section on further improvement in labor mkt raises question whether FOMC sees “light at the end of the tunnel” in terms of reaching full employment." So if you are currently unemployed, discuss what "some" means and you may soon have a job.
As for the rest:
Elsewhere the statement was little changed. In the opening paragraph on economic conditions, the committee upgraded its description of activity in the housing market ("additional improvement" vs "some improvement"), but left its characterization of consumer spending unchanged ("has been moderate"). A reference to stabilizing energy prices was removed. The statement also revised the discussion of utilization in the labor market. Previously the statement said underutilization "diminished somewhat" (implicitly over the intermeeting period). Today's statement said that underutilization "diminished since early this year". In our view these changes are neutral for the policy outlook.
Said otherwise, Goldman is as clueless as everyone, or at least hasn't decided what to tell Yellen her policy should be just yet.
