Moments ago, Facebook reported Q2 earnings and just like Twitter, it beat across all key financial metrics:
- Revenues of $4.04 billion beat consensus $3.99 billion
- Non-GAAP EPS of $0.50 also beat consensus of $0.47 (GAAP EPS was a different story, at half the non-GAAP).
- Monthly active users (MAUs) - MAUs were 1.49 billion as of June 30, 2015, an increase of 13% year-over-year, and above the 1.475billion expected.
So all is well, and FB stock should be soaring. Alas for FB longs it isn't and at last check the stock was down by $5 or about 5% after hours, because algos were focused on one particular user growth metric:
- Daily active users (DAUs) - DAUs were 968 million on average for June 2015, an increase of 17% year-over-year.
This number was a fraction less than the 970.5 million consensus estimate, and because it brought up nightmare visions of what happened to Twitter stock overnight, which since earnings has plunged to near all time lows, is forcing traders to sell or short, if only now, and ask questions later.
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Ironically, the one chart the algos should be looking at is the one showing the Y/Y decline in real operating income, masked by the endless fudging of non-GAAP adjustments...
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... an dthe collapse in GAAP operating margins:
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The reason for this massive divergence? Some 19% of Facebook revenues are stock-based compensation: magically everyone continues to pretend this is irrelevant.
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Whatever the reason, the stock is not happy...
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And since FB, with its $270 billion market cap, has become a huge component of the Nasdaq, the broader tech index is not too happy either.
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That said, we wouldn't be at all surprised if there is a complete kneejerk reversal during the conference call: yesterday TWTR had spiked 10% on the initial results, only to crash today. Perhaps Facebook will pull a mirror image...
