Nail-biter... or Cliff-hanger? (Stallone is The PPT, the girl is the market, the carabiner is The Fed, the guy in the other chopper is CNBC)
* * *
Post-Payrolls reaction...
[7]
Despite reassurances that a) rate-hikes are priced-in, 2) rate-hikes are bullisher for stocks than rate-cuts (why would The Fed raise rates if everything was not awesome?), and thirdly) buy the dip! It appears the rising rate-hike probability is 'coincidental' with markets turmoiling...
[8]
But don't forget...
Flashback Friday! http://t.co/KXtCoypZ8Z [9] cc @jtcrombie [10] @zerohedge [11] pic.twitter.com/XMq9jc2ZoO [12]
— Rudolf E. Havenstein (@RudyHavenstein) August 7, 2015 [13]
Equity markets in turmoil... Small Caps broke...
[14]
And Futures show the big drops...but Europe-based drift higher...
[15]
- Dow down 7 days in a row - first time since Aug 2011
- Dow down 800 points in 3 weeks - worst run since Aug 2011
Note - Death cross (50DMA crossing below 200DMA) looms...
[16]
The S&P was held above its 2014 close and the 200DMA (2073) was very aggressively defended... thanks to a VIX clubbing...VIX ended the day lower!!! bwuahahahah!!!
[17]
The ramp effort broke the markets...
NYSE's direct feed clock just went whack - slowing dropping 10,000 micros over 15 minutes: pic.twitter.com/pTkuSg2kYj [18]
— Eric Scott Hunsader (@nanexllc) August 7, 2015 [19]
- Biotechs down 9.2% - biggest weekly drop since Aug 2011
- Media down 8.4% - worst week since Aug 2011
- Energy down 2.7% - down 13 of last 14 weeks
- AAPL down 5.1% - worst week since Jan 2014; worst 3 weeks (-11%) since Jan 2013
[20]
Catching down to credit...
[21]
VIX up 19% - biggest weekly jump since Jan 2015 before the gapping effort down at the close to rescue stocks...
[22]
In Bond land...
- 2Y Yield rose 6bps - biggest jump since June 2015 (near 4 year highs)
- 30Y Yield down 5 of last 6 weeks (40bps biggest drop since Jan 2015)
[23]
- 2s30s Curve down 14bps - biggest weekly flattening since April 2013
- 5s30s Curve down over 9% - biggest weekly flattening since Sept 2011
[24]
The Corporate (IG and HY) Bond market is not happy...
- HYCDX +40bps in 3 weeks - worst run since Dec 2014, highest risk since Dec 2014
[25]
- HYG down 1.25% to lowest since Nov 2011 (worst 3 week run since Dec 2014)
[26]
Commodity Carnaged...
- Crude down 7.0% - down 6 weeks in a row (28% drop) to 5mo lows
- Copper down 11 of last 12 weeks - lowest since July 2009
- Silver Up 0.6% (before post-close slide) - best week in 3 months, breaks 5 week losing streak
- Gold could not hold green - extends losing streak to 7 weeks
[27]
But not everything was down...
[28]
Note that Oil and stocks have become highly correlated once again...
[29]
As Crude was clubbed back to a $43 handle close...
[30]
Ironically, FX markets were actually relatively quiet (at least in the majors)...
[31]
Although EM saw some pain (from Ruble to Real...)
[32]
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: VIX under 14 and CNN Fear-and-Greed Index collapses to 10!!
[33]