One week ago, we warned that after once again bottom-ticking the 10Y like a true professional, Dennis Gartman was about to be stopped out of his Treasury short which he had "put" on on August 6 [8]:
It is time to be shot of the long end of the US bond market and we wish this morning to sell the September T-note future at or near to 126 3/4. We can imagine the front month future trading to 118-119 over the course of the next several months while at the same time we shall be willing to risk only 1 1/2 points to the upside. The top has been formed over the course of the last several months and we are willing to be short even ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report."
We assessed this very simply: "time to buy."
Then, on August 12 we reported [9]that Gartman was about to be stopped out:
We were convinced that a top has been formed over the course of the last several months and we were willing to be short but the Chinese devaluation has wrought havoc upon us, catching us and everyone else out. As we write, the September t-note future is trading 128 ¼ and that is ¼ point above our “close only” stop.
Sure enough, this happened this morning:
THE TEN YEAR US T-NOTE FUTURE: We Were Short… Now We Are Not!: The trend since mid-June is upward and today’s collapse in the Chinese stock market will serve only to make the bid for the US bond market that much stronger!
End result:
[10]
Since Gartman covered his "short", the 10Y complex has seen nothing but selling:
- Benchmark yields higher by 1bp-2bp after paring or erasing overnight declines spurred by Chinese stock selloff.
- 10Y yield declined as much as 3.2bps to 2.136%, bottoming concurrently with U.K. 10Y; gilts then led developed market yields higher after core CPI rose 0.1% vs 0.0% median est. in Bloomberg survey.
