Over the past several years, the two-day Jackson Hole symposium had garnered a particular prominence among economists and market watchers as this is where various key inflection points by the Fed were hinted, leaked or announced, including QE2, QE3 and the taper. This year, however, the gathering of central bankers in Teton County, will be less exciting due to the absense of the most important central banker in the world: Janet Yellen, which means the highlighter will be Vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer when he speaks tomorrow at 10:25pm which will be a key event given the recent market turmoil.
Fischer must be on draft #3 of his speech, and surely less dovish than he might have been 36-48 hours ago as markets round the world have seen a remarkable recovery however the gyrations must be making the Fed very nervous about a move in just under 3 weeks. Most DM markets are back to where they were before the original sharp sell-off on Monday with the DAX pretty much recovering all its losses after dipping -7.8% for the week at one point. As DB accurately puts it, "a combination of the latest plate spinning from China and thin trading liquidity but heavy volumes have driven the sharp up move."
Bloomberg TV will have extensive one on ones with various central bankers as follows: be especially careful for the Bullard interview - last time he spoke during a market correction he sent stocks soaring to all time highs, although this year Dudley may have taken his role.
- 7:30am: Fed’s Bullard on Bloomberg TV
- 9:15am: Fed’s Kocherlakota, Mester on Bloomberg TV
- 12:25pm: Swiss National Bank’s Jordan speaks in Jackson Hole
- 2:15pm: Fed’s Lockhart on Bloomberg TV
- 4:15pm: Reserve Bank of India’s Rajan on Bloomberg TV
- 10:25pm: Bank of England’s Carney speaks in Jackson Hole
So for those who time their buying programs with the appearance of their central bankers,here is the full schedule starting with this morning's discussion of "Inflation dynamics through firms' pricing behavior" and concluding tomorrow with another discussion on "global inflation dynamics." So a lot of inflation discussion, yet shouldn't it be deflation?
Friday, August 28, 2015
Chair: James Poterba
Professor
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
President
National Bureau of Economic Research
8 a.m. Inflation Dynamics Through Firms’ Pricing Behavior
Authors: Simon Gilchrist
Professor
Boston University
Egon Zakrajsek
Associate Director, Monetary Affairs
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Discussant: Pete Klenow
Professor
Stanford University
8:35 a.m. General Discussion
9 a.m.
International Aspects of Inflation Dynamics
Author: Gita Gopinath
Professor
Harvard University
9:45 a.m.
Discussant: Charles Engel
Professor
University of Wisconsin
10 a.m. General Discussion
10:25 a.m. Central Bank Perspectives on Inflation Dynamics
Panelists: Thomas J. Jordan
Chairman of the Governing Board
Swiss National Bank
Athanasios Orphanides
Professor
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Rodrigo Vergara
Governor
Central Bank of Chile
11:25 a.m. General Discussion
12:40 p.m. Luncheon Address
Speaker: David Daokui Li
Professor
Tsinghua University
2 p.m. Adjournment
* * *
Saturday, August 29, 2015
Chair: Erica L. Groshen
Commissioner
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
8 a.m. Reinflation Challenges and the Inflation: Targeting Paradigm
Authors: Jon Faust
Professor
Johns Hopkins University
Eric M. Leeper
Professor
Indiana University
Discussant: Takatoshi Ito
Professor
Columbia University
8:35 a.m. General Discussion
9 a.m. Inflation Dynamics During and After The Zero Lower Bound
Authors: S. Bora?an Aruoba
Associate Professor
University of Maryland
Frank Schorfheide
Professor
University of Pennsylvania
9:45 a.m.
Discussant: Lucrezia Reichlin
Professor
London Business School
10 a.m. General Discussion
10:25 a.m. Overview Panel: Global Inflation Dynamics
Panelists: Mark Carney
Governor
Bank of England
Víctor Constâncio
Vice President
European Central Bank
Stanley Fischer
Vice Chairman
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Raghuram Rajan
Governor
Reserve Bank of India
11:45 a.m. General Discussion
2 p.m. Adjournment
Source: Kansas City Fed [12] [12]
