Durable Goods New Orders dropped 2.0% MoM in August, the biggest drop since March (but modestly beat expectations of a 2.3% drop). This extends the ex-transports YoY losing streak to 7 months of declines flashing recessionary warnings left and right. Perhaps most notable is the 0.2% drop in Capital goods Shipments (dramatically missing expectations of a 0.5% rise) and the weakest print since May.
Durable Goods New Orders YoY down for 7 consecutive months.
[3]
The less volatile ex-transports series stangated in August, on expectations of a 0.1% increase for the month, and dropping 3.9% Y/Y is now also down 7 months in a row.
[4]
But if headline durables were bad, than core capex in the form of capital goods non-defense ex aircraft both shipments and orders was a total collapse.
To wit: orders.
[5]
And shipments.
[6]
Paging the NBER: feel free to admit the US is in a recession any time now.
