The brief dead cat inventory-stacking bounce in Chicago PMI is over. With a print of 48.7, back below 50, (against hope-strewn expectations of 52.9) this was below the lowest economist estimate and the lowest since May. Aside from employment (which somehow rose), the components were ugly with New Orders and Prices Paid all tumbling, while Production was the lowest since 2009 at 43.6.
Chicago confirms Richmond [4], New York [5], Philly [6], Chicago [7], and even Kansas City [8] regional surveys all flashing recessionary warnings.
Welcome back into contractionary sub-50 levels.
[9]
And welcome back to the recession:
[10]
Charts: Bloomberg
The Breakdown:
- Forecast range 49 - 55 from 43 economists surveyed
- Prices Paid fell compared to last month
- New Orders fell compared to last month
- Employment rose compared to last month
- Inventory fell compared to last month
- Supplier Deliveries fell compared to last month
- Production fell compared to last month
- Order Backlogs rose compared to last month
- Business activity has been positive for 7 months over the past year.
- Number of Components Rising: 2
