Following Manufacturing PMI's weakness [5]and ADP's Manufacturing employment weakness (and six regional Fed surveys' weakness [6]), ISM printed 50.2 (the 3rd miss in a row, the 9th miss in the past 11 months, and lowest since May 2013). Under the surface was a disaster with New Orders collapsing (unadjusted are weakest since before 2013) with just 22% saying New Orders are better (the lowest since August 2012), and greater than respondents saying "Worse" for the first time since December 2012
[7]
As New Orders completely collapse...
Virtually everything else tumbled too, with Production, Employment, Deliveries, Prices, Backlogs and Imports all dropping:
[8]
This is what the respondents said:
- "Revenues and profits in our industry continue to [be] impacted by low crude and gas prices." (Petroleum & Coal Products)
- "North American business steady. International business trending bearish." (Chemical Products)
- "High value of dollar is affecting global procurement pricing." (Computer & Electronic Products)
- "Concerns about China downturn and its effect on our consumer confidence." (Fabricated Metal Products)
- "Overall business is slowing. Consumers are nervous. Not sure what is coming next." (Transportation Equipment)
- "Business is picking up." (Furniture & Related Products)
- "The orders from customers seem to be slowing a bit from the first part of the year. We have promises but not actual Purchase Order numbers." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
- "Sales revenue and profitability improving slowly. Getting close to 2015 budget/sales plan. Not seeing consistent trends up or down." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
- "Continue to feel impact of oil and gas market slowdown. Aerospace demand has also been slower than expected. Consumer Electronics not robust." (Primary Metals)
- "Concern for AI [Avian Influenza] for poultry when bird migration begins." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
With 6 of 6 regional Fed Surveys all recessionary...
[9]
And according to ADP, for the first time this decade, the US hasn't created a single manufacturing job for the entire year. In fact, it has lost some 6,600 jobs.
[10]
Charts: Bloomberg
