Between the plunging market-implied rate-hike probabilities [7] and Fed-Whsiperer Jon Hilsenrath's WSJ piece [8] this evening strongly hinting at no hikes in 2015, the 'relief' rally in Asian FX (and Japanese stocks) is - in a word - insane. If the world's central banks mandates are "price stability" in whatever format they believe that to manifest, they have well and truly failed. The Won has jumped most since 2011, Ringgit and Rupiah are soaring over 2%, and Nikkei 225 is up over 400 points from the US session close...
The rate-hike odds are collapsing...
[9]
And as WSJ's Hilsenrath notes, [8]confirming the market's bias...
The chances of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in 2015 are diminishing amid new signs of anemic economic activity, a disappointing development for central bank officials who have been hoping to move this year after a prolonged period of easy-money policies.
Lackluster readings on consumer spending, inflation and jobs have virtually eliminated the chances of a move this month. Already, two Fed governors expressed doubts this week about whether the timing will be right this year, and the recent trove of data hasn’t reassured top officials about the economic outlook.
Sparking panic buying in Nikkei 225...
[10]
But EM FX is soaring against the USD...
[11]
As the following chaos shows...
- *KOREAN WON SET FOR BIGGEST GAIN VS DOLLAR SINCE NOV. 2011
[12]
We would note though that the USD weakness is starting to stall out any BoJ-hope-strewn JPY weakness which supports the world's equity markets...
[13]
Between the pace of hot money flows and illiquidity, the yo-yo-ing "markets" are as fragile as anything we have seen since Lehman.
Charts: Bloomberg
