Last week it was all about central banks, when both the ECB and the PBOC unleashed a massive market rally. This week it will be about even more central banks, this time the Fed, which won't hike, and the BOJ, which may but most likely won't as the Fed and the ECB already did its work for it, sending the Yen tumbling with their actions and/or jawboning.
- We kicking off the week in Germany this morning where we got the October IFO readings: the Business Climate read dropped by beat expectations. Over in the US, September new home sales and the October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index are the highlights.
- Turning to Tuesday, China industrial profits data is the key release in the early morning. The advance reading for Q3 GDP in the UK is the highlight of a quiet European session. There’s plenty of data in the US on Tuesday however. September durable and capital goods data is probably the highlight, while we’ll also got the October flash services and composite PMI’s, October consumer confidence read, S&P/Case Shiller house price index data and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
- There’s more data in China on Wednesday where we’ll get October consumer sentiment data while Japan retail sales data is also due. In Europe German, French and Italian consumer confidence reads are due. In the US on Wednesday the October FOMC rate decision is the obvious highlight, while there’s no scheduled Yellen press conference to follow.
- Turning to Thursday, the October German CPI reading will be closely watched, while Germany will also release its latest unemployment numbers. In the UK we get net consumer credit and mortgage approvals while we’ll also get Euro area confidence indicators. In the US on Thursday we’ll get the advance read for Q3 GDP, while initial jobless claims and pending home sales is also due.
- We close out the week on Friday in Asia with a bumper release out of Japan with CPI, housing starts, employment data and of course the BoJ meeting all scheduled. In Europe we get the advance Euro area CPI print, while French consumer spending are also due. Euro area unemployment is also due. In the US there’s more important data with the September PCE core and deflator readings, as well as the employment cost index, personal spending data, Chicago PMI and finally the final October read for the University of Michigan consumer sentiment print. It’s a particularly quiet week for Fedspeak with just Lockhart (Thursday) and Williams (Friday) scheduled. Of course earnings will again be front and centre for markets. 167 S&P 500 companies accounting for 30% of overall market cap are due to report. The highlights look set to be Apple, Pfizer, Merck and Ford on Tuesday, Amgen on Wednesday, followed by Exxon Mobil and Chevron on Friday. In Europe 93 of the Stoxx 600 companies are due to report, accounting for 27% of the market cap. Notable releases look set to include Royal Dutch Shell, Total and Anheuser-Busch.
And visually:
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Source: BofA and DB