Durable Goods Orders Signal Recession With 7th Consecutive Drop

For the 7th month in a row, Durable Goods New Orders fell year-over-year (down 1.0%). This has not occurred without a recession. While MoM the headline number rose 3.0% (beating the 1.7% rise expected), it appears driven by another one-off surge in Boeing plane orders as Capital Goods Shipments Ex-Air fell 0.4%. Finally, the inventory to shipments ratio re-accelerated in October, back near cycle highs.

Core Capex Shipments remain lower YoY...

[4]

And Core Capex Orders were flat YoY...

[5]

But the headline remains weaker YoY for the 7th month in a row...

[6]

Recession looms...

Charts: Bloomberg