As noted earlier, after last week's snoozefest, this week starts off with a bang when the IMF announces in a few hours it will accept the Chinese Yuan in the pantheon of world reserve currencies alongside the USD, EUR, GBP and JPY the only question being what the alotted weighing of the currency will be. Things then progress to tomorrow's global PMI numbers, Yellen speeches on the economy to the Economic Club of Washington and Congress (Weds/Thurs), the eagerly anticipated ECB meeting on Thursday and finally Friday's OPEC meeting and US payroll print - the last before the FOMC in 2 weeks time.
Here is the full rundown of this week's events courtesy of DB:
- We start this morning in the UK with the latest mortgage approvals and consumer credit data, before we then turn our attention over to Germany with the latest CPI numbers for November. In the US this afternoon, data wise the focus will be on pending home sales, while the Chicago PMI, ISM Milwaukee and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index are also expected.
- We start in Asia on Tuesday where the official and non-official November manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s for China will be closely watched, while we’ll also get Japan’s Nikkei manufacturing PMI data and also the latest capex data. Over in Europe on Tuesday we’ll get the final revision for the November manufacturing PMI numbers for the Euro area, Germany and France as well as provisional numbers for Italy, UK and Spain. The Euro area unemployment rate is also expected. In the US the final revision to manufacturing PMI is also due, along with the November ISM numbers, construction spending and finally vehicles sales data.
- Wednesday kicks off in Europe where the November CPI print is due (headline expected to rise to +0.3% yoy from +0.1%). In the US the November ADP employment change reading is the notable release ahead of Friday's payrolls, while Q3 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs, along with the ISM NY and finally the Fed’s Beige Book also due.
- In Asia on Thursday the only data of note is the November Nikkei services and composite PMI’s for Japan. In Europe we’ll get the latest French labour report, along with the final services and composite PMI’s for the Euro area, Germany and France. Euro area retail sales is also due, but the main focus will be on the ECB decision due shortly after midday. It’s a busy day for data in the US with the final revision to October durable and capital goods, final services and composite PMI’s, initial jobless claims, ISM non-manufacturing and finally factory orders data.
- We round off the week in Europe on Friday with German factory orders. In the US it’ll be all about the November employment report and payrolls in particular (200k expected). The October trade balance reading is also worth keeping an eye on.
And in chart format:
[18]
