Following the earlier onslaught of weak (and strong) economic data, [6]China has revealed its official and Caixin-based PMI surveys for Manufacturing and Services. Sure enough, while China's official manufacturing data missed (to Aug 2012 lows), Ciaxin's survey beat, jumping to June 2015 highs. even as China's official Services PMI beat expectations, bouncing off 15-month lows. The question now is - given The IMF's inclusion of the Yuan in the SDR basket - will The PBOC devalue (as offshore Yuan implies) to juice a collapsing manufacturing sector... or is China's manufacturing now improving if one looks at the "other" PMI?
Lots of confusion, even if just as we suggested before the Caixin PMI print:
Now Markit PMI has to show China Mfg rising and services dropping to make the confusion complete
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 1, 2015 [7]
And so, behold - China Manufacturing. The official print missed expectations and heads deeper into a 4-month contraction.. butthe Caixin survey surged to 5-month highs, beating expectations
[8]
And if you do not believe that the central planners know what they are doing - Dr. He Fan, Chief Economist at Caixin Insight Group explains...
“The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI for November continued to show signs of recovery, reaching 48.6, compared to October's 48.3. This indicates that pressure on economic growth has eased and fiscal policy has had a strong effect.
Overall, the economy is still on track to become more stable.”
Let's get some context on this so-called "stability" - it moved up 0.3pts and is still at 48.6 - a very contractionary level! So 'contraction' is the new 'killing it'.
China Services... [delayed for now - no explanation from source]
Finally we note that China services PMI is indeed likely to outperform manufacturing at every turn going forward. If we see China services PMI fall off a cliff with manufacturing, then it exposes the gaping wound that reforms are not working and that the glorious five-year plan transition away from the smokestack isn't working...
However, someone needs to tell Chinese stocks to get with the program - following yesterday's afternoon session rescue, Chinese equity investors are again selling to government buyers.
[9]
Because US equities are loving it - Dow Futs up over 100 points from the close - running stops above the US open cliff dive...
[10]
Charts: Bloomberg
