Back in March 2014, the ECB predicted that inflation at the end of 2015 would be 1.3%. Moments ago, with less than a month left in the year, the ECB has trimmed its forecast to just 0.1%. Oops.
But what about next year?
Well, in March 2014, the ECB predicted 2016 year end inflation would be 1.5%. It now predicts it will rise to 1.0%, decidedly lower than the 1.5% predicted in June, and yet in our humble opinion, still about 1% higher than where it will end up.
As for the ECB's 2017 year end inflation forecast of 1.6%... one thing we can say with near certainty is that by then European inflation will either be -1.6% or lower, or +16% or higher.
[2]
Good luck Mario.
