At 1815ET, after trading in a very narrow $1 range for hours, Bitcoin suddenly exploded $17 higher on very heavy volume. Normally this wouldn't warrant an explicit mention, but this time... something odd happened in Chinese currency markets...
Offshore Yuan suddenly snapped 12 pips lower after noise trading in a 1 pip range for hours... just as Bitcoin spiked...
[5]
On heavy volume...
[6]
Both moves signal a move away from the USDollar with Bitcoin and Yuan strengthening.
The last time Bitcoin spiked notably like this was at the start of the Chinese crackdown on capital controls. [7]
But... with the spread between Offshore and Onshore Yuan (the former dramatically weaker than the latter), it appears the market is expecting a devaluation sooner rather than later...
[8]
Perhaps, just perhaps, that is what Bitcoin is 'hinting' at. For sure, a Yuan devaluation now would be enough to spook global markets once again, and force The Fed to put a rate hike on hold... only this time, everyone and their pet rabbit is neck-deep in "priced in" liftoff expectations.
Charts: Bloomberg
