"They can resort to the U.N. Security Council, that is their natural right, but this is not an honest step,” Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday, referencing Baghdad’s move to appeal to a “higher” authority in an increasingly tense standoff with Ankara stemming from the latter’s decision to send several hundred troops and 25 tanks to Bashiqa (just northeast of Mosul) a week ago.
Turkey contends that the deployment is part of an agreement between the two countries that allows for Turkish soldiers to assist in training Iraqi and Peshmerga fighters as they battle ISIS. Iraq doesn’t seem to remember much about the alleged partnership.
Earlier this week, Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu said Ankara has no intention [11] of withdrawing the troops and even went so far as to suggest that Baghdad was being “provocative” by questioning Turkey’s motives.
We of course have suggested [12] that one explanation for Turkey’s deployment is that Erdogan is keen on having an expanded military presence in northern Iraq now that some rather inconvenient questions are being asked about his family’s role in facilitating the flow of illicit ISIS crude from oil fields in Iraq and Syria to Ceyhan.
Additionally, it’s worth noting that the deployment comes as controversial Iraqi lawmaker Hanan Al-Fatlawi accuses John McCain [13] of planning to insert some 100,000 troops in the country to include 10,000 US soldiers and 90,000 from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, and of course, Turkey. To be sure, 350 is a long way from 90,000, but the point is, Turkey is suddenly determined to have boots (and tank tracks) on the ground near Mosul and it’s not entirely clear why.
Last Sunday, Baghdad demanded that Ankara pull its forces out with Abadi issuing a 48 hour ultimatum. When Turkey refused, Russia raised the issue with the Security Council. Iraq’s UN ambassador Mohamed Ali Alhakim subsequently told reporters that Baghdad and Ankara "are solving it bilaterally." "We have not yet escalated it to the Security Council or to the United Nations," he added.
That was on Tuesday. By Friday, a letter emerged which indicates that Alhakim has indeed “escalated” the matter after losing patience with the Turks. "We call on the Security Council to demand that Turkey withdraw its forces immediately ... and not to violate Iraqi sovereignty again," he wrote, in a letter addressed to U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power, president of the Security Council (who you might recall is fond of tweeting [14] out foreign policy).
"This is considered a flagrant violation of the principles of the U.N. Charter, and a violation of Iraqi territorial integrity and sovereignty of the state of Iraq," the letter continues.
"Iraq worked on containment of this issue by diplomatic means and bilateral talks, but these efforts did not succeed in convincing Turkey to withdraw its occupying forces from Iraqi territory," Alhakim told Power.
“The Turkish military is helping to train local Iraqi volunteers and Kurdish peshmerga who are preparing for a long-anticipated offensive to retake Mosul, a major northern city seized by Islamic State more than a year ago,” Reuters says [15], parroting the official line.
Note that no one is "preparing" to retake Mosul, at least not where "preparing" means an offensive is imminent. Additionally, it's bizarre that the Western media continues to insist that the Turks are on some kind of legitimate training mission. Baghdad clearly wants them out and therefore, their presence is illegal - by definition. To the media: The fact that Erbil is ok with it doesn't count, just like it's technically not ok that the KRG siphons off some 600,000 b/d of Iraqi crude without SOMO's permission.
"Iraq’s government has ordered the closure of its commercial office in Istanbul, according [and] authorities may take 'tougher steps,' including cutting trade links with Turkey," Bloomberg said on Thursday [16], adding that "total bilateral trade amounts to about $11 billion a year."
So it would appear that Ankara is once again set to Plaxico itself economically for the sake of achieving a set of military and geopolitical goals that remain shrouded in relative secrecy (even as Erdogan's brazen actions are slowly revealing his true nature to the world).
Meanwhile, Iraq's Shiite militias have taken to the streets of Baghdad to protest Turkey's occupation and what they believe is an insufficiently forceful response from the Iraqi government. "Thousands of protesters, most of them members of Iraq’s Shiite paramilitary forces, gathered in downtown Baghdad on Saturday demanding the pullout of Turkish troops from the country," Sputnik reports, citing TV Alsumaria.
"As the leader of a military brigade, I am not fully satisfied with the government's action, and we are here to say that Iraq's patience has run out," said Ali Rubaie, a commander.
"But we are not here to doubt the ability of our commander-in-chief, and as a brigade we are ready," Rubaie added.
Iraqis burning a billboard for a Turkish company in #Basra [17]. Anti-Turkish sentiment on the streets skyrocketing. pic.twitter.com/eIBlr4jvxM [18]
— Haidar Sumeri (@IraqiSecurity) December 12, 2015 [19]
Note that earlier this week, Iran's militas threatened to target the Turkish troops and drive them out of Iraq. "Crowds of young men in military fatigues chanted against Turkish 'occupation,' vowing they would fight the Turkish troops themselves if they do not withdraw," AP reported [20] on Saturday morning. "The demonstration, called for by the umbrella group of Shiite militias in Iraq whose power rivals that of the Iraqi army, was attended by militia leaders and some Shiite politicians."
"Turkish interests in Iraq will now be a legitimate target because of Turkey's assault on Iraqi territories," Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, one of the Shia militias of the Popular Mobilisation said in a statement, earlier this week. Similarly, Harakat al-Nujaba called Turkey "a terrorist state." You're reminded that these groups have a reputation for fearing no one other that Khamenei himself.
The Security Council was not expected to call an emergency meeting over the weekend.
The takeaway here is that the situation is about to reach a boiling point and the Iraqi regular army has neither the capability nor the will to stop the militias from attacking the Turks. In fact, as we've documented extensively (see here for instance [21]), some divisions report to the militias' chain of command rather than to Baghdad.
It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall when the Security Council does finally take up the issue considering recent calls from Hakim al-Zamili (who, like Hanan Al-Fatlawi, is an influential and controversial Shiite lawmaker) for "direct Russian military intervention" to "solve" the Turkish problem.
Note the similarity to Syria here. If Iran's Shiite militias were to end up pushing north in Iraq under cover of Russian airstrikes you would have the exact same set up as you have in western Syria: Tehran and Moscow driving north towards Turkey with a large ISIS-held city in between.
