On Thursday, we detailed [12] the Obama administration’s plan to impose fresh sanctions on Iran in connection with the test-firing of Tehran’s next-generation, surface-to-surface ballistic missile the Emad back in October.
While the launch did not technically violate the nuclear accord (on which the ink is barely dry), it did run afoul of a UN Security Council resolution on developing and testing missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads. That prompted some US lawmakers to call for new penalties against the country just as international sanctions are set to be lifted.
The new measures reportedly target around a dozen companies and individuals with ties to Tehran’s ballistic missiles program including:
- U.A.E.-based Mabrooka Trading and its founder, Hossein Pournaghshband
- Hong Kong-based Anhui Land Group
- Five officials from Iran’s Ministry of Defense for Armed Forces Logistics, or MODAFL including Sayyed Javad Musavi, a key figure at a MODAFL subsidiary which has been the subject of Treasury Dept. sanctions in the past
Iran immediately responded, calling the sanctions “arbitrary and illegal.” As a reminder, the Iranians vigorously defend their right to pursue what they call “defensive” capabilities. Tehran says its missile program falls into that category.
For his part, President Hassan Rouhani was not pleased and ordered his defence minister to immediately expand [13] Iran's missile programme. This is precisely what we warned would happen on the heels of the Emad launch when we said the following:
“..imposing sanctions on countries in order to deter their defense buildup (Iran) or otherwise force them into acting in a way that fits your definition of being an internationally responsible country (Russia) is a fool's errand to the extent that it only serves to aggravate the situation and perpetuates still more of the very same behavior you're trying to deter in the first place."
Of course the more immediate question for The White House was whether the new sanctions would derail the nuclear accord which, as regular readers are no doubt aware, is a rather important part of Obama’s legacy. John McCain - among others - have accused the administration of tolerating incessant Iranian sabre rattling in a desperate attempt to preserve the deal. “Strict, aggressive, and consistent enforcement is critical to punishing Iran for its destabilizing behavior and making the nuclear deal work,” McCain said, in the wake of an “incident” in the Strait of Hormuz involving what Washington says was a “close call” with Iranian rockets.
In a move that will almost certainly infuriate GOP lawmakers, The White House has decided to mothball the new sanctions. “The White House has delayed its plan to impose new financial sanctions on Iran for its ballistic missile program,” WSJ reports [14], citing US officials. The move comes “amid growing tensions with Iran over the nuclear deal struck earlier this year,” The Journal adds. Here’s more:
U.S. officials offered no definitive timeline for when the sanctions would be imposed after the decision was made Wednesday to delay them. At one point, they were scheduled to be announced Wednesday morning in Washington, according to a notification the White House sent to Congress.
Republican leaders on Thursday accused the Obama administration of losing its will to challenge Iran after Tehran countered on Thursday that it would accelerate the development of its arsenal.
“If the president’s announced sanctions ultimately aren’t executed, it would demonstrate a level of fecklessness that even the president hasn’t shown before,” said Rep. Mike Pompeo (R., Kan.), a leading critic of the nuclear deal, in an interview.
Critics of the planned sanctions had already charged they weren’t an adequate U.S. response to Iran’s continuing development of its missile program.
President Hassan Rouhani said Thursday morning on Twitter that he had instructed Iran’s Ministry of Defense to accelerate the development of ballistic missiles in response to the news reports of the impending U.S. sanctions.
The State Department was keen to note that the decision was not in any way related to Rouhani's comments. In a hilariously absurd testament to just how indecisive the current administration has become, Obama was apparently ready to announce the sanctions at 10:30 a.m. on Wednesday, then got cold feet and pushed the announcement back "a few hours" before cancelling it altogether. Here's The Times again:
The White House on Wednesday morning sent a notification to Congress that the Treasury Department would announce at 10:30 a.m. new sanctions on nearly a dozen companies and individuals in Iran, Hong Kong and the United Arab Emirates for their alleged role in developing Iran’s ballistic missile program. The sanctions would have been the first imposed on Iran since the nuclear agreement was reached last July in Vienna.
The White House then sent a second email to congressional offices at 11:12 a.m. stating the sanctions announcement had been “delayed for a few hours,” according to a copy of the communications seen by The Wall Street Journal.
In a final White House email sent just after 10 p.m., officials said the sanctions had been delayed, and didn’t specify when they might go ahead.
It's unclear what exactly unfolded between say, 9 a.m. Wednesday morning and lunchtime, but it seems logical to assume that someone conveyed Iran's position to the administration and, upon learning that Rouhani (not to mention the Ayatollah) were about to blow a fuse, Obama simply called the whole thing off.
Needless to say, this will be trotted out endlessly as further evidence that America has become weak, that the President "leads from behind," and that the nuclear was indeed "historic" - a "historic" failure.
On that note, we close with two statements, one from The White House and one from Rouhani. Compare and contrast.
The White House: "We are considering various aspects related to additional designations, as well as evolving diplomatic work that is consistent with our national security interests, and as such we will not be announcing any additional designations today."
Rouhani: "We have never negotiated regarding our defense capabilities including our missile program and will not accept any restrictions in this regard."
