It was less than a day ago when Gartman, in his latest appearance on the nepotism-challenged CNBC, said that not only is the bottom for oil not in yet, but that a selling "panic" could push it down as low as $15: after all with Standard Chartered coming out with a $10 forecast, it was suddenly cool to have dire predictions about the black gold's downside risk.
This is what he said [8]:
"The dollar is the predominant deciding factor at this point, and as long as the dollar continues to go higher, and it does, the pressure will remain on the crude oil market. I really thought that $32 might hold. I actually thought that would be the furthest that we could extend it down to, but we're getting a panic situation. And in panic you can get an egregiously lower price," he said.
According to Gartman, the bottom is not in for oil: It could fall much further. "Egregiously lower — $15, $16, $17, $18 per barrel on the front month for a day or two but it won't last long down there," he said.
Perhaps because the video was record around lunch time, before oil dipped below $30 and then rebounded, and perhaps because just a few hours later Jeff Gundlach said oil has bottomed, the halflife on this particular Gartman call was record short.
This is what he said in his latest overnight letter:
CRUDE OIL PRICES, FINALLY, HAVE STABILISED and we shall go our far upon a limb here this morning suggesting very strongly that when nearby February WTI traded to $29.93 at its low yesterday amidst a great deal of very vocal consternation on the national business television channels that crude had “TRADED BELOW $30 PER BARRELL” that that was what we in the past had referred to as the “obscene number” and may well have been the low.
This, of course, comes from the world-renowned commodities expert who trades oil as follows:
So while oil may have much more downside once again, the other question is what happens to stocks? After all in yesterday's comment in which Gartman [9]said he was preparing to "short this bear market" more, we warned "shorters may want to take today off" ahead of the late day spike. What does Gartman think now?
Our International Index has risen 89 “points” in the past twenty four hours, taking it 1% higher in the process and reviving hopes on the part of the equity market bulls that the weakness has run its course. It has not and we wish to be quite clear about that. For the year-to-date, our International Index is down nearly 750 “points and from its high last May it is down nearly 2350 “points” or 7.8% and 21.0% respectively. These are not insignificant numbers. Indeed they are manifestly bearish numbers and we must needs trade bearishly as a result, and for now we await the rise toward 1985 for the S&P as noted just above into which we have every intention of becoming rather aggressively net short of the market. We have the ability… and the opportunity… at this point to be patient, awaiting our target and waiting for the proper time.
His conclusion:
Victory usually goes to the patient.
By patient we suppose he means to those who now flipflop twice in less than 24 hours?
