Something has changed! After years of consistent down-trend in initial jobless claims, the regime has change since mid-October to an uptrend. This past week saw claims rise 7k to 284k leaving the less-noisy 4-week average at 279k - its highest since early July 2015. Continuing claims also rose to 5 months highs (up over 4% in the last 3 months - the most since June 2009).
This is the largest 3month rise since the end of 2013... (before QE3 was unleashed)
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And continuing claims surge by their most since 2009...
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What many appears to be unable to grasp is that we have seen the best and history tells us what comes next...
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Charts: Bloomberg
