Fires were still burning at key oil transit site Monday morning...

Production growth slowed in response to a near-stalling of orders from customers...

Tehran and Cyprus lie 1,000 miles apart...

Key focus this week will be on the US jobs report on Friday, retail sales on the same day, the ISM indices (today and Wednesday), and the Fed’s Beige Book, also due on Wednesday

...this is what you see when investors get nervous but don’t want to “fully de-risk” at the index level.

There is no safety net if the US doesn’t manage to land this manoeuvre" - Rabobank

History shows that oil prices can rise significantly, and well above fair-value estimates when geopolitical uncertainty is high and when the market puts some weight on supply disruptions persisting

...parallels US Haitian scandal

"It won't be the last." 

"The endgame remains highly uncertain, ranging from a relatively swift political exit to a broader regional spillover. In such a fog of war, markets tend to trade probabilities rather than shifting facts."

"From Venezuela, to JGBs, to Greenland, to tariff policy, to Iran, a new risk event seems to emerge on an almost weekly basis. And maybe the trickiest dynamic has been the shifting views around AI. Like T-1000, the antagonist in Judgement Day, AI can be almost anything."

"The attack on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery marks a significant escalation..." 

Trust has rarely topped 30% since the early 2000s, with brief spikes during national crises like 9/11...

"In terms of capabilities, there is demand being placed on U.S. stockpiles of interceptors..." 

Illegal immigration is fueling another wave of crimes against women...