• Phoenix Capital...
    10/01/2014 - 11:24
    We have the very makings of a Crash. If stocks breakdown from this line and cannot reclaim it, we could easily wipe out all of the gains going back to 2013.

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Ackman, Berkowitz Slammed After Fannie Mae Plunges 60% On Court Ruling

It is not a good morning for Bill Ackman's Pershing Square or Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Capital, or the US government for that matter, of course, which happen to be the three largest investors in Fannie Mae. The reason: FNM stock, which at last check, was crashing by nearly 60%.



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Contained? Dallas Hospital Discharged Sick Ebola Patient 2 Days Before Isolation

While yesterday's CDC press conference was factual, it was clearly very much designed to avoid panic as time and again the US public was reassured that Ebola in America was 'contained', 'hard to contract', and would 'stop here'. However, as Bloomberg reports, the man with Ebola in Dallas was initially sent home from the hospital with antibiotics after seeking treatment for an unknown illness, officials said. We know CDC has stated the need for the US to be prepared but the fact that after the patient sought medical care on Sept. 26 and was sent home with antibiotics, he returned in an ambulance to Texas Health Presbyterian two days later and was admitted, suggests US healthcare workers are not prepared for the possibilities that Ebola is here in America - Another suspected Ebola case is being evaluated at a National Institutes of Health facility, U.S. officials said, the 13th such possible infection in the U.S.



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ADP Private Payrolls Rise Modestly To 4-Year Average

Despite Mark Zandi's promises that all is well in the US economy, ADP had dropped (and missed) two months in a row prior to today's print but a very small rise and beat this month (213k vs 205k expected and 205k previous) shows some stability. Of note is that this print is no better than the average ADP job change over the last four years. On the bright side small businesses add the most jobs while medium-sized businesses added the least. Of potential note to this somewhat 'meh' jobs data, yesterday's Consumer Confidence data showed a disappointing plunge in Jobs-Plentiful vs Jobs-Not-Plentiful which suggests Friday's all-important payrolls print may not be as exuberant as expected.



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Frontrunning: October 1

  • European Bond Yields Go Negative (WSJ)
  • Traveler from Liberia is first Ebola patient diagnosed in U.S. (Reuters)
  • Hong Kong Protesters Step up Pressure on Leung to Quit (BBG)
  • JPMorgan to face U.S. class action in $10 billion MBS case (Reuters)
  • Turkey mulls military action against Islamic State (Reuters)
  • Singapore Home Prices Fall for Fourth Straight Quarter on Curbs (BBG)
  • Italy's Economic Woes Highlight Dilemma for European Central Bank (WSJ)
  • Advanced iOS virus targeting Hong Kong protestors (Reuters)
  • Fed Scrutiny of Leveraged Loans Grows Along With Bubble Concern (BBG)
  •  Mosquito Virus That Walloped Caribbean Spreads in U.S. (BBG)


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Germany Throws Up Over Draghi Plan To Buy Greek Junk

In a striking admission that Mario Draghi's "strategy" about the ECB's Private QE future, aka ABS monetization plan, is nothing short of converting Europe's central bank into a "bad bank"  repository for trillions in bad and non-performing debt, the FT yesterday reported that "Mario Draghi is to push the European Central Bank to buy bundles of Greek and Cypriot bank loans with “junk” ratings, in a move that is set to exacerbate tensions between Germany and the bank." It is expected that the former Goldmanite will unveil details of a plan to buy hundreds of billions of euros’ worth of private-sector assets at tomorrow's ECB meeting.



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Equity Futures Fail To Surge Despite Ongoing Bad News Onslaught

A quick anecdote that should quickly confirm just how broken everything is: earlier today MarkIt reported European manufacturing data that was atrocious, with both German and European PMIs tumbling to levels not seen since mid-2013, and with Europe's growth dynamo now in a contraction phase clearly signalling what has been long overdue: a European triple dip recession. So what happens? Moments later Germany sells €4.1 billion in 10 Year paper at a record low yield below 1%.... even as the Bundesbank had to retain a whopping 17.84% of the auction, the highest since June, with only €4.663 Bn in bids for the €5 Bn target, the first miss since May 21. So hurray for the central banks, boo for the economy, and as for that mythical creature, once known as bond vigilantes, our condolences: good luck figuring out what the hell just happened, and good luck recalling what a free market is.



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Europe On Triple-Dip Alert After German Manufacturing Posts First Contraction In 15 Months

If the European triple-dip alert was barely glowing a muted red until this morning, then following the latest German PMI data, which tumbled to 49.9 from 50.3, below the 50.3 consensus, and is the first contractionary print in 15 months, then they are now screaming a bright burgundy. And while the European recession has now clearly made its way to the core, it wasn't just Germany: French PMI continued to be solidly in a contracting phase, at 48.8, unchanged from the previous month, the overall European Manufacturing PMI also missed and declined, dropping from a flash reading 50.5 to only 50.3, which was a 14 month low, with the average PMI reading for Q3 the lowest since a year ago, and as MarkIt summarized, "Eurozone manufacturing edges closer to stagnation." Have no fear, though, Mario Draghi and his monetization of Greek Junk Bonds will fix everything!



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CDC Confirms First Ebola Case Diagnosed In The US, In Dallas Hospital - Press Conference Live Feed

As experts (as opposed to President Obama) had warned, the probability of Ebola coming to the US is around 20% by year-end. So it should not be a total surprise that:

*CDC CONFIRMS FIRST EBOLA CASE DIAGNOSED IN THE UNITED STATES, PATIENT IS IN DALLAS HOSPITAL, NEWS 8 REPORTS
*CDC DIRECTOR SAYS: `THERE IS NO DOUBT WE WILL STOP IT HERE'

The patient recently returned (via plane) from traveling from Liberia, West Africa. This perhaps explains why CDC was "taking precautions in the US" as we noted previously. And don't forget the administration's interference in Ebola treatments.



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What Just Happened In Today's "Crazy" And Biggest Ever "Window-Dressing" Reverse Repo?

Something quite "crazy" indeed (not our words).



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RX For Revisionist Bunkum: A Lehman Bailout Wouldn’t Have Saved The Economy

Here come the revisionists with new malarkey about the 2008 financial crisis. No less august a forum than the New York Times today carries a front page piece by journeyman financial reporter James Stewart suggesting that Lehman Brothers was solvent; could and should have been bailed out; and that the entire trauma of the financial crisis and Great Recession might have been avoided or substantially mitigated. That is not just meretricious nonsense; its a measure of how thoroughly corrupted public discourse about the fundamental financial and economic realities of the present era has become owing to the cult of central banking. The great error of September 2008 was not in failing to bailout Lehman. It was in providing a $100 billion liquidity hose to Morgan Stanley and an even larger one to Goldman.  They too were insolvent. That was the essence of their business model. Fed policies inherently generate runs, and then it stands ready with limitless free money to rescue the gamblers.  You can call that pragmatism, if you like. But don’t call it capitalism.

 



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Recovery? 60% Of Greeks Live At Or Below Poverty Levels

While Greek government yields (and political leaders) proclaim the troubled peripheral European nation is 'recovering', the risk of major political upheaval in Greece has not gone away ahead of next year's presidential vote next year. As Reuters notes, under growing pressure from anti-bailout leftists, Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras desperately needs a new narrative to get the backing of lawmakers and rally Greeks fed up with four years of austerity. We wish him luck as Keep Talking Greece notes, it is high time that the real data of the economic situation of the Greek society come to the surface and so it did this week. A report from Greece's State Budget Office found that three in every five Greeks, or some 6.3 million people, were living in poverty or under the threat of poverty in 2013 due to material deprivation and unemployment.



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These Are The Warships Attacking Syrian Militants From Afar

Two classes of warships kicked off the U.S.-led attacks on Islamic State and the al Qaeda-linked Khorasan group. WSJ's Jason Bellini explains what are these ships' capabilities?



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"If Something Rattles This Ponzi Scheme, Life In America Will Change Overnight"

The U.S. government is borrowing about 8 trillion dollars a year... The only way that this game can continue is if the U.S. government can continue to borrow gigantic piles of money at ridiculously low interest rates. And our current standard of living greatly depends on the continuation of this game. If something comes along and rattles this Ponzi scheme, life in America could change radically almost overnight.

 



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Why Is China Hoarding Gold? Alan Greenspan Explains

"If China were to convert a relatively modest part of its $4 trillion foreign exchange reserves into gold, the country’s currency could take on unexpected strength in today’s international financial system. It would be a gamble, of course, for China to use part of its reserves to buy enough gold bullion to displace the United States from its position as the world’s largest holder of monetary gold.... If the dollar or any other fiat currency were universally acceptable at all times, central banks would see no need to hold any gold. The fact that they do indicates that such currencies are not a universal substitute... Whereas Simon, following the economist Milton Friedman’s view at that time, argued that gold no longer served any useful monetary purpose, Burns argued that gold was the ultimate crisis backstop to the dollar." - Alan Greenspan



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