REAR VIEW: AI bosses call for a slowdown in the pace of its development; Cooler-than-expected Canadian inflation; Crucial Saudi oil pipeline hit in strikes will be mostly out of service for several weeks; Trump said Ukraine and Russia agreed not to hit energy targets; US seeks "Step-by-Step" agreement with Iran; Iran-Gulf nations meeting postponed.

"We see the type of rent growth that we haven't seen since the beginning of ..." 

Stocks remain mired in a tug-of-war - irritated by oil and rates, supported by earnings growth...

"Convenience store traffic stepped back down in August, with rising fuel prices..." 

The bond market has taken control from Warsh and Bessent, and in some ways is now testing or even tormenting them...

The risk-reward for a fall in US short-term rates is better than a rally in Treasuries...

Ex-CIA chief: "this was terrifying."

"We've got to follow the facts, apply the law, be guided by the Constitution, and then let the chips fall where they may, in the best interests of the American people,"

... the 'No Hike' and 'Crush Inflation' scenarios appear less likely than the other three outcomes in our mind, which could help the 2-year sector find firmer footing next week...

Trump said the Chinese leader has "behaved reasonably well"...

"We do not see a strong economic case for raising the funds rate... but the FOMC might worry about the consequences of not hiking for market perceptions of the Fed’s credibility and about the immediate reaction of longer-term interest rates."

Systematics are still running large longs just as buyback blackout begins. A little lower could quickly become a lot lower.

"We'll ultimately get out [of Iran], unless we decide to stay and keep the oil like Venezuela..."

Sochi's beaches temporarily closed amid mounting casualties...

Equity investors may be relieved to hear that Trump says that the pace of AI development should not slow down, but given the geopolitical and bond market imperatives, perhaps they should pay some heed to other orange men with unusual hairstyles...

Investor anxiety remains high...while surface volatility remains eerily calm...

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