• Sprott Money
    01/26/2015 - 08:30
    Making New Year “predictions” used to be an automatic, beginning-of-the-year exercise, to the point where readers generally expected such pieces from the pundits they follow. However, it is an...

Tyler Durden's picture

Draghi's "QE Dream" Is Finally Over, And Now The Questions Begin

After over 2 years of dragging, pardon the bad pun, the market by the nose, ever since his "whatever it takes" speech in July 2012, Draghi finally folded and launched QE. This, as Credit Suisse warned last week, and as stocks are starting to realize, may have been the longest "sell the news" build up in history. Of course, CS worded it more poetically: "the QE Dream becomes reality" and far more importantly, as it also adds: "the dream may prove far more powerful as a market driver than the reality."



Tyler Durden's picture

US Treasuries Are Soaring, Stocks Fading As European Bond Risk Surges

30Y US Treasury yields have collapsed over 14bps since Draghi unleashed QE... and US equities now well in the red post-QE.  Not exactly the kind of risk-on "buy buy buy" everyone was hoping for as European Peripheral bond risk spreads are rising...



Tyler Durden's picture

ECB QE Reaction: "Disappointment" - Crude Clubbed, Gold Glistens, EUR Tumbles, EU Bond Risk 'Rises', US Treasuries Rally

UPDATE: EURUSD < 1.15 but peripheral bonds selling off; EURCHF is dumping

Initial kneejerk reactions have started to fade but overall Europe is 'positive' as EURUSD is lower and stocks higher (excepty Germany's DAX which is at the LoD) but Sovereign spreads are higher. Initial exuberance in US equities have been entirely erased. Treasury yields are now lower as gold and silver are bid and crude and copper sold. We're gonna need a bigger bazooka Mr.Draghi...



Tyler Durden's picture

What ECB QE Will Do For The World (In 1 Word & 1 Simple Chart)

Nothing...



Tyler Durden's picture

Mario Draghi Prepared Remarks Word Count: Inflation - 15; Deflation - 0

It is somewhat paradoxical that in a historic statement which launches the ECB's official deficit monetizing and Article 123 contravening QE with a 6 year delay, a QE which is launched with the implied if unstated purpose of "defeating deflation" that the key word count is as follows.



Tyler Durden's picture

Jobless Claims Over 300k For 3rd Week, Spike In Shale States

Not "unambiguously good" as Shale states see initial jobless claims spiking. Overall initial jobless claims missed expectations for the 4th week in a row, holding above 300k for the 3d week in a row (for the first time since July). At 307k, this week's print is below last week's but well above the 300k expectation. However, across TX, CO, ND, PA, and WV, initial claims (1 week lagged) rose to over 75k (from 30k in October)... "crisis has passed"?



Tyler Durden's picture

Mario Draghi Unveils €60 Billion Per Month QE Through September 2016 With Partial Risk-Sharing: Live Conference Webcast

From "whatever it takes" to OMT to "discussing" bond purchases, with European interest rates at record (incomprehensible) lows (apart from Greece) and EURUSD at 11-year lows (down 25 handles in the last 8 months), Mario Draghi looks set to unleash interventionist 'hell' on the investing public in Europe with EUR50 billion (plus plus) of ECB QE per month for as long as it takes...



Tyler Durden's picture

Do We Want Solutions, Or Just What's Easy?

We are so brainwashed by centralized models of state authority that few can even imagine a system where the solution is not one centralized monstrosity ruled by a political/financial Aristocracy. A good first step would be to admit to ourselves that we don't really want solutions; what we want is magic: financial magic that makes healthcare free and affordable, medical magic that fixes all our lifestyle ills without forcing any rigorous adult routines and limits on us, political magic that transforms our system from its current corrupt crony-capitalist paradise into a functioning, transparent democracy and economic magic that makes all the unpayable debt vanish so we can borrow another $50 trillion, or $100 trillion, with no restraints on our spending or cronyist corruption. We have no idea what it will take to jolt us from our preference for magic over realistic, difficult (i.e. adult) solutions, but we suspect a crisis that threatens to completely unravel the Status Quo will be part of the process.



Tyler Durden's picture

Swiss Yields Plunge To New Record Low, 1Y -1.05%

1-Year Swiss interest rates have now crashed 75bps in the last week since the SNB decision to un-peg from the Euro. As the world awaits Draghi's big moment, Swiss rates are sliding more and investors seek the 'safety' of Francs - even if it costs them 1.05% per year for that 'safety'.



Tyler Durden's picture

ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged, No QE Announcement Yet

As expected by most analysts, the ECB kept its rates unchanged for all three facilities.  This is hardly surprising, although as HSBC accurately observed, if the ECB really wants to incentivize banks to sell their government bond holdings, it should have actually pushed rates higher. In any event, as the ECB also noted, "Further monetary policy measures will be communicated by the President of the ECB at a press conference starting at 2.30 p.m. CET today" ?which is a signal that a much bigger announcement is coming in 45 minutes when Draghi begins to speak.

 



Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 22

  • ECB to decide on bond-buying plan to revive euro zone (Reuters)
  • Draghi Is Pushing Boundaries of Euro Region with QE Program (BBG)
  • Investors Wonder Whether ECB Will Do Enough (WSJ)
  • Treasuries Drop With Bunds Before ECB; U.S. Futures Rise (BBG)
  • European shares hit seven-year high (Reuters)
  • At least eight civilians killed in shelling of Ukrainian trolleybus (Reuters), both sides blame each other
  • OPEC Will Blink First in Battle With Shale Drillers, Poll Shows (BBG)
  • China Injects $8 Billion Into Banking System (WSJ)
  • New York says Barclays not cooperating in 'dark pool' probe (Reuters)


Tyler Durden's picture

Market Wrap: Futures Unchanged As Algos Patiently Await The ECB's "Monumental Decision"

With less than two hours until the ECB unveils its first official quantitative easing program, the markets appear to be in a unchanged daze. Well, not all markets: the Japanese bond market overnight suffered its worst sell off in months on a jump in volume, although for context this means the 10Year dropping from 0.25% to 0.32%. Whether this is a hint of the "sell the news" that may follow Draghi's announcement is unclear, although Europe has seen comparable weakness across its bond space as well and the US 10 Year has sold off all the way to 1.91%, which is impressive considering it was trading under 1.80% just a few days ago. Stocks for now are largely unchanged with futures barely budging and tracking the USDJPY which after rising above 118 again overnight, has seen active selling ever since the close of the Japanese session.



Tyler Durden's picture

What 4th Amendment? Police Across America Are Using Radars To See Inside People's Homes

The intentional erosion of public privacy is no accident. It’s not merely a simplistically stupid overreaction to the dangerous world we live in either. It is a very deliberate and nefarious plan being intentionally implemented by the American oligarchy; i.e., the super rich and the super powerful. This is precisely why the establishment freaked out about the Edward Snowden revelations, and it is why every single minor event is immediately manipulated into an excuse to give the government and intelligence agencies more power. While we already know a lot about the NSA’s unconstitutional and fascist policies when it comes to the web, the decimation of the 4th Amendment is also being eagerly practiced at a more local level by police departments across the country.



Tyler Durden's picture

The Most Economically-Correlated Commodity Is Flashing Red

While Crude Oil and Dr. Copper are often cited as economic indicators, as @Not_Jim_Cramer notes, in fact Lumber prices are the most correlated with ISM and GDP of all industrial commodities. That is a problem. Lumber prices are tumbling and are breaking the 6-year up-trend that has 'proved' the recovery. With no CCFD manipulation and less financialization than crude, perhaps Lumber is the real canary in the economic collapse coalmine...



Tyler Durden's picture

Hedge Fund Manager Loses 99.8% In 9 Months, Tells Investors He Is "Sorry" For "Overzealousness"

Day after day, mainstream media proclaimed December the month to be in stocks: seasonals, Santa Claus rally, and performance-chasing funds would 'guarantee' upside. For Owen Li, former Raj Rajaratnam's Galleon Group trader, and the clients of his Canarsie Capital hedge fund, December 2014 will never be forgotten. According to CNBC, from around $100 million in AUM in March 2014, Li told investors in a letter, the fund had lost all but $200,000 and he was "truly sorry," for "acting overzealously" in the last 3 weeks.



Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!