• dazzak
    09/01/2015 - 21:45
    Wax on Wax off.....things could spiral out of control rather quickly

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Guest Post: 10 Steps Closer To Economic Armageddon

Draghi introduced still-more-easing into Europe this morning as his surprise cut created turmoil in markets. What this means today, tomorrow, or next week is anyone's guess. What it means in a larger context is not...



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Student And Car Loans Represent 99% Of All Loans Taken Out In Past Year

The chart that puts it all in perspective, is the following, which shows the breakdown of total credit issued in the past year broken down between revolving (credit cards) and non-revolving (car and student loans). The latter amounts for 99% of all loans taken out in the past 12 months. It needs no additional commentary.



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How High Will TWTR Stock Go? Ask Mr. Fed Chair(wo)man

Because it's not about valuations.. and it's not about rational expectations... we present the only metric necessary to project TWTR's price into the oh-so-predictable future...



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Endo's Message To The IRS: "F#ck You"

Endo Health Solutions just announced a big acquisition. The company’s rationale is to take advantage of a stunning tax loop hole. There are a couple of implications to highlight: 1. Endo’s shareholders are the clear winners; and 2. The USA is the big loser. Extrapolating beyond Endo, if one accepts the premise that companies are obligated to use legal means to minimize tax costs, and if one then takes this precedent to the logical conclusion, this transaction could/should be a road map for other companies to follow.  Is Congress paying attention?



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Bill Dudley On Breaking Up Too Big To Fail Banks: "Don't"

Goldman's (and NY Fed's) Bill Dudley: "I am not yet convinced that breaking up large, complex firms is the right approach.  In particular, these firms presumably exist, in large part, because there are scale or network effects that allow these firms to offer certain types of services that have value to their global clients.  These benefits might be lost or diminished if such firms were broken up.  In addition, the costs incurred in breaking up such firms need to be considered.  Finally, the breakup of such firms would not necessarily result in a significant reduction in overall systemic risk if the resulting component firms were still, collectively, systemic. "



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Japanese Stocks Are Crashing As JPY Surges

No one has any good answers but it seems carry is being unwound in a hurry as US momos are hammered. Whether Draghi's move shocked EURJPY riders enough to spark some major anxiety is unclear but Japanese stocks are now down over 440 points from early highs (to one month lows), US equities at their lows, and USDJPY blown back below 98.00.



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IPOs Have Only Had A Better Year Once - 1999

We previously discussed what happened the last time that IPOs were outperforming the broad market by as much as they are now but thanks to the exuberance of the last month, it seems we have broken another 'record'. Year-over-year absolute gains in Bloomberg's IPO index have only been higher once in history - in 1999; and current levels have been notable resistance for the exuberant spurts of the last 6 years...



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What's Wrong With The Following Chart... Or How JPM's Traders Humiliated Goldman Sachs

As we reported previously, for the third quarter in a row, Obama's favorite punching bag bank - JPMorgan - reported a statistically impossible zero trading day losses. Some suggested that since in the New Normal market in which it is virtually impossible to lose money this was to be expected; either that or just because banks work purely to satisfy client flow and have little principal risk, there is little reason for them to actually lose money trading. Both these ideas got blown out earlier today when Goldman reported that in the third quarter, the FDIC-insured hedge fund's trading loss days soared to a total of 15 days: a whopping 23.4% of the total 64 trading days in the quarter.



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Ironic CNBC Screengrab Of The Day

Presented with no comment...



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Entire OTC Market Breaks As Finra Halts All Quotes And Trading

On Thursday, November 7, 2013, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (“FINRA”) halted trading in all OTC Equity Securities pursuant to FINRA Rule 6440(a)(3). FINRA determined to impose a temporary halt because of a lack of current quotation information. Therefore, FINRA has determined that halting quoting and trading in all OTC Equity Securities is appropriate to protect investors and ensure a fair and orderly marketplace. The trading and quotation halt began on Thursday, November 7, 2013, at 11:25:00 a.m. E.T. FINRA will notify the market when trading may resume.



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European Stocks Dump, Reverse Gains; Demand Moar From Draghi

For a few brief minutes this morning, the world celebrated Mario Draghi's 'surprise' rate cut as just the medicine that an all-time high stock market needs to go even higher. European stocks popped champagne-like (with Italy and Spain jumping 2 to 2.5% on the news), EUR collapsing, and peripheral bond spreads dropping notably. However, as he began to speak and it was clear that growth is not there, deflation is a real risk, and - most importantly - there will be no LTRO anytime soon, market reversed and did not look back. It seems, as JPM warns, an LTRO is no longer likely early next year, and the market appears to be disappointed by that. Of course a few more down 2% days (4% drop from highs) and we are sure Draghi will find a way to unleash more...



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As Bitcoin Soars Over $300, A Question Arises: Could It Become A Global Reserve Currency?

Having now tripled since August, Bitcoin's break above $300 ($324 highs) raises an important thought experiment - can a digital currency act as a global reserve currency?



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Markets Are Going Crazy

There is no news as a catalyst here but bonds, FX, commodity, and stock markets are smashing around as Twitter break below its open price. JPY is rushing higher against the USD (as is EUR which has retraced Fib 61.8% of its losses from Draghi). Treasury yields are collapsing. Nasdaq and all the other US equity indices are dumping as momo names suffer the most.



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Twitter Tags $50 Then Dumps Back Below Open Price

Nope, no bubble here... Having traded up to $50 (over 33x Price-to-Sales), it seems hitting every analyst profit target (aside from Topeka's Anthony) within one hour of its release was enough for most... The 'profit-taking" has started and now TWTR is trading back below its break price... But do not worry - everyone can rest assured as Cramer just said "we're out of the woods here." Of course, as everyone knows, it's not where you start, it's where you finish that counts...



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Twitter Opens At $45.10 (+73%); Trades Up To $48 (+84%)

+75% at the open... (and is now up to $47.23)... HFT activity is extreme



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