21 Shocking Facts About The Explosive Growth Of Poverty In America

The growth of poverty in the United States is wildly out of control.  It turns out that there is a tremendous amount of suffering in “the wealthiest nation on the planet”, and it is getting worse with each passing year.  During this election season, politicians of all stripes are running around telling all of us how great we are, but is that really true?

Over 40% Of Chinese Goods Sold Online Are Counterfeit

Following a recent report documenting the surge in empty malls littering China, many suggested that this is indicative of a shift to online shopping and migration to platforms such as Alibaba. That may well be the case, but unlike in the US where one is assured at least some quality control and has a rational expectation that what was ordered online is what will be delivered, in China the reality is far different. According to China's official news agency, Xingua, more than 40% of goods sold online in China last year were either counterfeits or of bad quality, illustrating the extent of a problem that has bogged down the fast-growing online sector.

Bond Yields Grind Higher As December Rate Hike Suddenly All Too Real

It's different this time... The last two times that Fed hike probabilities (and thus timing of liftoff) surged, the long-end of the bond market rallied (suggesting a premature hike would slow the economy medium-term). The last few days, since The FOMC Statement, Treasury yields have surged (with the short-end underperforming) as 10Y tops 2.25% and 30Y nears 3.00%. As BofAML noted, "if The Fed hikes rates and the long end yield tumbles, that means policy failure," and so we suspect, in all its confirming-bias perfection, the long-end is being sold to 'convince' the world that The Fed is right to raise rates.

Russia Set To Host "Negotiations" Between Assad, Syrian Opposition As Iran Hardens Stance

Russia is reportedly set to host negotiations between the Assad government and the Syrian opposition in Moscow next week, although it isn't at all clear that the invitees play a meaningful role in the conflict. Meanwhile, Maria Zakharova is out with comments about Syria's political future which the Western media are interpreting as an admission that Russia is willing to let Assad go.

What's Next: Deflation, Inflation, Or Hyperinflation?

Almost all serious analysts see a Terminal problem developing - "We will go from deflation to hyperinflation without seeing inflation." But hyperinflation is a political phenomenon. It is caused by those same authorities the masses think they can trust. When they are threatened, they will protect themselves by printing money on a scale we haven’t seen since the War Between the States (consumer prices in Richmond, Virginia, had risen 6,700% by the end of the war).

Hugh Hendry: "Today We Would Advise You That You Don't Panic!"

"It is ironic that we are perhaps best known for advising “that you panic”. However, if you are anxious at the wrong time it can prove very painful. Today, we would advise that you don’t panic!
... by withdrawing the “Greenspan put” and using their asset purchase schemes to eviscerate any notion of value, the authorities have paradoxically created a safer yet more paranoid market."

- Hugh Hendry

How The US Government Is Raiding A Citizen Victim Relief Fund To Pay For General Expenses

One of the primary “talking points” used by the Department of Justice to defend its practice of systematically deeming corporate criminals above the law via its used of deferred prosecution agreements, has been an emphasis on how much money it has earned in fines from criminal corporations. These fines were supposed to be distributed to help victimized American citizens. Not any more.

US Factory Orders Miss Again, Drops Year-Over-Year For 11th Month In A Row

It's just factory orders...ignore it. For the 11th month in a row, US Factory Orders have fallen year-over-year, re-acclerating the most recent drop to -6.9%, something that has not happened outside of a recession in history. In fact, adjusting for the one-off Boeing surge in July 2014 this is biggest Y/Y drop since October 2008. Month-over-month, orders fell 1.0% (more than expected), down for the 11th month in the last 14. The good news is that inventories dropped 0.4% (for the 3rd month in a row) but that will further hurt GDP, but, unfortunately, inventories-to-shipments remain at 1.35x cycle highs.

Miracle In Manhattan? - ISM New York Spikes By Most In 12 Years (From Lowest Since 2009)

File this under 'WTF' - despite job growth and purchase volume dropping for the 2nd consecutive month for the first time in 3 years, ISM New York reported a headline print of 65.8 in October. The jump from 44.5 (6 year lows) in September is the largest MoM jump since Nov 2003... Under the surface it was weak all around except for one thing... "outlook" - or hope - which soared from 62.8 to 74.0 (despite a plunge in expected demand 6 months out). All in all - we reiterate our initial thoughts - WTF!?

Bring On 'Operation Switch' - Bill Gross Calls For A Reverse 'Operation Twist' To "Benefit Savers And The Economy"

"But they won’t, you know. Yellen and Draghi believe in the Taylor model and the Phillips curve. Gresham’s law will be found in the history books, but his corollary has little chance of making it into future economic textbooks. The result will likely be a continued imbalance between savings and investment, a yield curve too flat to support historic business models, and an anemic 1-2% rate of real economic growth in even the most robust developed countries."

New Poll Shows Carson Overtaking Trump In National Poll

The mainstream media is cock-a-hoop after CNBC-parent NBC and Rupert Murdoch-owned Wall Street Journal reveal a new national poll that shows notjust Trump being beaten in 2nd place by Ben Carson (who is currently on a book tour) but also shows Marco Rubio surging (from 4% to 11%) if one wanted to spin it that way. Softly-spoken Carson, with 29% of the GOP primary voters polled, is ahead of Trump (23%) for the first time in the campaign, tripling his support since July (and as WSJ reports is the first Republican to top 50% when voters 2nd and 3rd choice are combined). On the other side of the scale, Bush's support is collapsing as Cruz and Rubio accelerate.

Lack Of Participation Could Become Weighty Issue For Stock Rally

Participation among all stocks in the recent stock rally, as measured by an equal-weight index, has been relatively weak – as it has been since last spring. This issue should not simply be viewed in the context of judging the quality of the bounce off of the September lows. It should be viewed as a larger, more significant challenge to the longer-term sustainability of the stock market rally. For, even as the major average are once again approaching their former highs, they are doing so on the backs of a diminishing number of stocks.

US Officials Outline "Secret" Summer Operation To Stop Flow Of Dollars To ISIS

In the latest example of Washington playing catch up in the global "war" on terror PR battle, “officials familiar with the matter” have told WSJ about a concerted effort to cut off the flow of dollars to ISIS. Allegedly, the US became concerned about the amount of hard currency being shipped to Iraq over the summer. The problem: the requested amounts didn’t seem to be consistent with the country’s economic fundamentals and so, the US cut off Iraq’s access to dollar funding, nearly plunging the country into crisis.

Frontrunning: November 3

  • S&P 500 Futures Slip as Aussie Gains on Rate Outlook; Oil Rises (BBG)
  • Xi Says China Needs at Least 6.5% Growth in Next Five Years (BBG)
  • Ben Carson Vaults to Lead in Latest Journal/NBC Poll (WSJ)
  • World's Biggest Banks Still Not `Truly Resolvable,' FSB Says (BBG)
  • Keystone XL's builder faced darkening prospects (Reuters)
  • Merkel Says Germany Must Step Up World Role in Refugee Crisis (BBG)