In what may be one of the least relevant payroll reports in a long time as the Fed already knows the labor market is doing better quantiatively (qualitatively it has been all about low-paying jobs gaining at the expense of higher paying manufacturing and info-tech positions) and as has further demonstrated it is no longer jobs data dependent, here is what Wall Street consensus expects: total payrolls +200,000, down from 215K in March; a 4.9% unemployment rate; average hourly earnings rising 0.3% (last 0.3%) M/M and 2.4% Y/Y (last 2.3%); on labor force participation of 63%.
In what is the latest confirmation that nobody believes the "rally", the latest fund flow data from EPFR showed that US mutual fund and ETF flows turned sharply negative for stocks and high yield this past week (ending on May 4th). The outflow from stocks was $16.9BN following a $1.29bn inflow in the prior week. This was the biggest outflow from stocks since the Sep'15 capitulation on back of China devaluation.
- Trump, under pressure to unite Republicans, sharpens attack on Clinton (Reuters)
- Trump's Campaign Upends the Science of Presidential Transition (BBG)
- Trump says Britain would be better off outside EU (Reuters)
- Goldman Said to Extend Fixed-Income Job Cuts to 10% of Staff (BBG)
- Apple's Tim Cook to visit China for government meetings (Reuters)
- China regulator studying impact of overseas-listed firms relisting in China (Reuters)
Last month, trucking fleets ordered just 13,500 Class 8 trucks, the big rigs used on long-haul routes, down 16% from March and 39% from a year earlier. It was the fewest net orders in any April since 2009, FTR said. DAT Solutions, an Oregon-based transportation data firm, reported that loads available for dry vans, the most common type of tractor-trailers used for shipping consumer goods, fell 28% in April while capacity on the market was up 1.7% on a year-over-year basis.
Ahead of the most important macro economic event of the week, US nonfarm payrolls (Exp. +200,000, down from 215,000 despite a very poor ADP report two days ago), the markets have that sinking feeling as futures seem unable to shake off what has been a steady grind lower in the past week, while the Nasdaq has been down for nine of the past ten sessions, after yet another session of jawboning by central bankers who this time flipped to the hawkish side, hinting that the market is not prepared for a June rate hike. Additionally, sentiment is showing little sign of improvement due to concerns over global-growth prospects as markets seek to close the worst week since the turmoil at the start of the year.
With her country's political landscape shifting significantly before her, Angela Merkel has now put her political hat on in order to survive politically in Germany. Having pushed her "open-arms policy" not so very long ago, Merkel has now flip-flopped - in line with the German people - urging European Leaders to protect the EU's external borders or risk a "return to nationalism."
A recent German study just confirmed what tens of millions of Greeks already knew. That they are a people fully conquered by criminal mega banks and the corrupt politicians and technocrats in their employ...
In an oddly ironic twist, today Donald Trump announced that he has picked as chairman of his newly launched fundraising operation none other than a former employee of the bank he has repeatedly criticized in the past, and which he used as a foil to criticize Ted Cruz: Goldman Sachs. In addition to Goldman, Mnuchin also worked for Soros previously. Where it gets even more ironic is that Mnuchin has donated frequently to Democrats, including to Clinton and Barack Obama.
More than two dozen U.S. lawmakers are urging President Barack Obama to refrain from supplying Syrian rebels with American-made shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles... “While we may have differing perspectives regarding the appropriate US response to the horrific violence in Syria, we agree that MANPADS would only lead to more violence, not only in Syria, but potentially around the world...”
Today the IRS published the latest figures on renunciation, showing that yet another 1,158 Americans have renounced their citizenship in the first quarter of 2016. While this may not be setting a record for a single quarter, the trend is quite clear.
“I’ve never bought into this idea that the lesser of two evils is a good idea.”
Just days after we exposed Texas police planning for riots and conducting mass arrest drills, the site of hundreds of M1 Abrams battle-tanks rolling on a train through Houston raised more than a few eyebrows...
The frenzied trading that smashed Chinese commodity markets through the roof in the last month has begun to unfurl rapidly as authorities crackdown on the speculative fever and force exchanges to curve excess 'churn'. Of course, there are still some who cling to the belief that any of this was 'real' demand, real buying, and real economic growth (just don't look at The Baltic Dry in the last few days) but, as Bloomberg reports, it was nothing but "churn baby churn" as trading volume exploded but open-interest remained flat.
As we recently hinted, concerns are mounting that Turkey is headed toward Shariah law implementation as the Presidency is consolidated, and particularly given Parliament Speaker Ismail Kahraman’s comments that secularism should be taken out of Turkey’s new constitution last week, moving it instead to a "religious constitution."
How is Gundlach preparing and trading in advance "Trump presidency"? "Look at arms manufacturers, said Gundlach. He would avoid companies that are susceptible to global trade slowdowns, particularly those related to Mexico and China.... As he gets the nomination, the markets and investors are going to worry about it more. You will see a downgrading of global growth based on geopolitical risks. You must factor this into your risk-management."