The Reality Behind The Numbers In China's Boom-Bust Economy

The US Federal Reserve orchestrated an artificial boom from 2001 to 2007 through artificially low interest rates and has resumed doing so once again. Entrepreneurs operating under faulty market signals created by the Federal Reserve malinvested hundreds of billions of dollars into capital intensive projects primarily in the housing sector. We paid for our boom with millions of destroyed jobs, wasted labor, and wasted resources. The Chinese Central Bank learned nothing from the Fed’s catastrophic experiment. They will reap the same rewards.

Weekend Reading: Capacious Cognitions

With the Federal Reserve still hinting at raising interest rates, but trapped by weak economic growth, will the next big move by the Fed be another form of monetary accommodation instead? Or, are the underlying dynamics of the economy and market really strong enough to shake off the recent weakness and continue its bullish ascent?

The Slippery Slope Of Denial

  1. Dollar doesn’t matter, indicates strong economy relative to the world
  2. Dollar matters for oil, but lower oil prices mean stronger consumer
  3. Manufacturing slump doesn’t matter, only temporary
  4. Manufacturing declines are consumer spending, but only a small part
  5. Manufacturing declines are becoming serious, but only from overseas
  6. US consumer demand is strong, except everywhere you look to actually find it.
  7. ...

Volkswagen: A Decade Of Deception - Full Chronology

The scandal swirling around Germany's largest listed company had its beginnings in an attempt to crack the U.S. market, the missing link in VW's global footprint. But, as Handelsblatt details, what began as expansion ended in deception (piecing together the events that led up to the scandal, based on the facts as they are currently known).

The Fed Isn't Even Trying To Make Sense Any More

Compare this - BULLARD SAYS HE EXPECTS STRONGER JOBS REPORTS TO COME.

To this - BULLARD SAYS SUB-200K PAYROLL GAINS MAY BECOME THE NORM?

But do not fear, these guys are on top of it!!

Crude Surges After US Oil Rig Count Collapses To May 2002 Lows

For the 6th week in a row, Baker Hughes reports a decline in US oil rig counts. With a huge 29 rig drop - the largest in over 5 months - the total oil rig count is 809, the lowest since May 2002. The reaction is a stick-save buying panic surging crude into the green on the day.

What If Expectations Of Our Central Bankers Are Simply Too High?

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

Payrolls Disaster: Only 142K Jobs Added In September With Zero Wage Growth; August Revised Much Lower

And so the "most important payrolls number" at least until the October FOMC meeting when the Fed will once again do nothing because suddenly the US is staring recession in the face, is in the history books, and as previewed earlier today, at 142K it was a total disaster, 60K below the consensus and below the lowest estimate. Just as bad, the August print was also revised far lower from 173K to 136K. And while it is less followed, the household survey was an unmitigated disaster, with 236,000 jobs lost in September.