IG16 is 125.5 +10 as I type. Could be 5 bps different by the time I finish writing. Main is being quoted on 2 bp markets. I'm seeing IG16 quoted on anywhere from 1 to 2 bp market. Typical bid/off is 1/2 a bp. HY16 is down 1 3/4 points again, but shockingly is still being quoted in 1/4 pt markets by most dealers. It could be a bright spot when the weakest of weak is actually holding on to some liquidity. Maybe have some people looking for the bottom in that market. SOVX is trading on 6 bp markets, and fins in Europe are all over the place.
As if Europe needed any more fuel to the raging fire that has seen Italy collapse (remember ASSGEN: stock is halted, and CDS is 270-280, 100 bps wider than where we recommended it), futures plunge, and French banks resume the position, here is Merrill's report titled, apropriately enough, "Banks Cut" in which Bank of Countrywide Lynch analyst Gary Baker, CFA explains why he is "lowering bank weighting to neutral." We expect a witchhunt focued on Gary, which will culminate with him facing a court martial and/or tribunal for daring to tell a few ounces of truth about Europe's banking system.
Today's Crunch Catalyst: Asian Banks Commence Cutting Credit Lines To French Banks, Sparking Self-Fulfilling PropheciesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/11/2011 - 06:18
Remember how we joked (but were dead serious) that the IMF is now simply a figurehead organization, and the real global bailout cop is China? Well, that may not be the case for much long. Reuters has just broken news that at least one bank in Asia, and five other in process, has cut credit lines to major French lenders "as worries about the exposure of French banks to peripheral euro zone debt mounts, banking sources told Reuters on Thursday." Why is this worrying? Because as is by now well-known, the PBoC has been as aggressive a buyer in the primary market of European market as most European banks, which as is well-known immediately turn and pledge said debt as collateral to the ECB for 100 cents on the euro, and the fact that its proxies are now quietly withdrawing from the European market as lenders of last resort, is probably far worse news than a rumor that the S&P may cut France.... What happens next is well known to anyone who lived through the fall of 2008: credit lines withdrawn means investors dumping stock in droves, means depositors staging physical money runs, means more credit lines withdrawn, means immediate liquidity crunch, means rumors of insolvency, means self-fulfilling prophecy, means scramble to get funding first from ECB, then from Fed, but by then contagion has spread and the entire financial system is in danger of imploding, means several trillion in FX swap lines activated to prevent a run on the dollar, which also happens to be the funding currency, means another scramble to bail out capitalism.
Bild Zeitung, is Germany’s biggest- selling newspaper, is the best-selling newspaper outside Japan and has the sixth-largest circulation worldwide. Bild encouraged German people to invest in gold as the global debt crisis continues to deteriorate and cause turmoil in global markets. “While the companies listed on stock exchanges have lost over the past 14 days, about $8 trillion dollars in value, the price of gold climbed to a record high.” “While money can be printed, gold reserves are limited. To date some 150,000 tonnes of gold have been mined.” Gold “is better than cash,” the newspaper said. “While any amount of money can be printed, gold is limited,” making it “one of the safest investments in crisis times.” The article is interesting as gold has remained taboo is much of the non specialist European press and media and was only briefly covered in recent days due to the deepening crisis and succession of new record nominal highs. German demand for gold has been very robust in recent years and the Germans experience of the Weimar hyperinflation means that they are very aware of the risks posed by today’s excessive money printing and global currency debasement.
Not even an hour after Tremonti addressed parliament discussing the various ways Italy would have to reform in order to meet European demands for austerity, the now traditional serial collapse of Italian banks resume, with the halt of the unholy trinity Unicredit, Intesa, Banca dei Monte Pasci, as well as Mediobank ensuing. Concurrently the same Italian weakness appears to have spread to France where BNP falls over 5% and SocGen down over 6%, affecting financials across the Eurozone, and sparking visions of a repeat of yesterday's collapse in European markets led by the fins. And while there is the usual plethora of rumors as to what may be responsible for this renewed weakness for now it is best not to speculate for fear of black helicopters, what is certain is that Italy's main opposition leader is setting the stage for a rerun of Greek daily strikes, by objecting to the balanced-budget plan at the heart of the Italian deficit cutting program. As Reuters reports, Italian opposition leader Pierluigi Bersani on Thursday rejected proposals for a blanket constitutional rule forbidding budget deficits but said his party was ready to support rules for greater budget discipline. Bersani said his party was ready to support measures to reinforce discipline in public finances but said it made no sense to impose unrealistic constraints on policy. "First, let's not talk about things that don't exist in any place in the world," Bersani said during a hearing of the parliamentary constitutional committee. "Balancing the budget in the constitution -- well, we don't intend to castrate ourselves for centuries from any possible economic policy." "So let's find a solution that has flexibility." Translation: we now have at best a few weeks before the strike (and riot) cam moves from Syntagma Square to Piaza Navona. As for Italian (and French) bank halts: our advice - don't exhale or the entire thing will collapse, and the smallest rumor will bring the European financial sector to a screeching halt yet again.
A snapshot of the European Morning Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc.
Market Recaps to help improve your Trading and Global knowledge
Abe Gulkowitz has released the latest edition of his always delightful and informative newsletter (for lack of a better word) "The Punch Line": the best aggregation of ad hoc charts, factoids, and data points available anywhere. While by now even Deutsche Bank realizes that the US economy has entered a recession, here is the blow by blow of how we got there, where we may be headed next and 1001 other facts about the US economy and the world that you probably did not know...
Just after hitting a new all time high of above $1815 in spot gold, the CME immediately sent out a notice to members advising that gold margins for Tier 1 members were increasing by 22% for both initial and maintenance positions, from $4,500 to $5,500. Unfortunately for the CME, this predetermined move was telegraphed to the market weeks ago, and with rumor 57 out of 22 finally turning out correct, this latest move only managed to push gold down modestly, and at last check was once again trading above $1,800. Just like all central bank interventions, which now have a half life between 1 hour and 4 days max, so this latest exchange attempt to subdue prices will fail spectacularly. Naturally, just like in the case of silver, this will merely embolden the CME to proceed with hike after hike, which in turn will kill speculative elements while merely reinforcing the strong hands. End result: in one month gold will be above $2,000 with almost 100% certainty.
Weekly Outflows From Domestic Equity Mutual Funds Surge To $13 Billion, Nearly Surpass Post-Flash Crash RecordSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/10/2011 - 16:43
More very bad news for mutual funds (which as we disclosed last week have an all time record low cash level ergo once the liquidations begin it is game over): as of the week ended August 3, redemptions from domestic equity mutual funds surged to a near all time high $13 billion, matched only by the $13.4 billion on May 26, 2010. The problem however is that back then we had a dramatic snapback. This time, considering that the market has dropped by almost 10% since August 3, we are fairly confident next week we are due to see an all time record outflow from equity funds. To all those who incorrectly assumed that retail sentiment as expressed by redemption is a contrarian sentiment, best of luck rummaging through the gutter for those McDonalds leftovers. And just is scary is that for the second week in a row, there were outflows from every single security tracked by ICI, nothing was spared: not taxable bonds, not foreign stocks, not munis. Retail has had it with this joke of a market and is investing in ZZ and nothing else. Net result: $67 billion in cash outflows from equity mutual funds in 2011 (and $98 billion in 2010): so... does the SEC still not think there is a confidence problem vis-a-vis the churnathon known as the stock market?
Bank Of America Scrambles To Shore Up Capital: In Negotiations To Sell $17 Billion China Construction Bank StakeSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/10/2011 - 15:53
Bank of America is doing all it can to delay the inevitable equity issuance. Reuters has just broken the news that the bank is in active negotiations with Kuwait and Qatar sovereign wealth funds to sell its $17 billion China Construction Bank stake. There are several problems with this approach: first, the petrodollar sovereign wealth funds just lost over 20% of their AUM courtesy of the global equity rout and of the plunge in oil by more than 20% in less than 2 weeks; Second: everyone recalls what happened to Alwaleed when he bought his "Blue Light" citi stake; third: if BAC does indeed sell its CCB stake, it will leave it with zero disposable assets and will have no choice but to approach the equity market. Fourth, the fact that it needs this cash is validation of all the rumors that the bank's capitalization may be urgently strapped very soon, and that today's Berkowitz call was nothing but lies (in typical BAC style); last, since the final cash need when all is said and done, when all the litigation is over and when the NY AG is done with the bank, BAC will need far, far more cash than $17 billion. Which is why any BAC bounce in the AH session should be viewed very skeptically.
For all those wondering what may force the "GREAT RESET", we now know. According to the below email from the Nasdaq sent out 24 minutes before close, we were just 10% away from the Nasdaq essentially DKing all trades on one of its UTP channels, and "restarting the outbound message count. If the count is restarted, the UTP SIP will be unable to process any UQDF retransmission requests for the affected data channel..." All we need now are the HFT quote churners to put the empty churn knob on max tomorrow, and the market, well, breaks.
RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 10/08/11
Remember when the Chairsatan announced that the US entered a recession yesterday and nobody noticed, even when Zero Hedge said it would take the market a day for the "sophisticated market players" to figure what just happened. No? We have one word... well, and one number: DOW(N): 521.
We bring you this special announcement courtesy of the White House which has informed that American plebs that following a fantastic job well done, in which the market is now back to pre-QE2 levels, unemployment is near record highs, delays for presidential press meetings compare with Newark airplane take offs, pessimism is at record highs, America's credit rating has just been downgraded, the country was nearly bankrupted, and sales of end of the world provisions are through the roof (not to mention ammunition), president Obama is taking a well-deserved vacation at Martha's Vineyard at the end of the month. From Bloomberg: "President Barack Obama will vacation with his family in Martha's Vineyard at the end of this month as he's done in years past, the White House said Wednesday, despite the weak economy and negotiations on the nation's debt problem. Press secretary Jay Carney defended Obama's plans to take a break even as he's pledged urgent action on those issues. "I don't think Americans out there would begrudge that notion that the president would spend some time with his family," Carney said." Spot on, Jay, spot on.