• Pivotfarm
    10/23/2014 - 18:39
    I challenge the central banker, manager, trader, and investors to manufacture and financially engineer a safer and better alternative to the USD.

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Saudi Arabia Surprises Market With Supply Cut Announcement, Oil Jumps

Saudi Arabia, it appears, had enough of shooting itself in the foot for its American 'partners', and has admitted for the first time that it slashed supply in September. As Bloomberg reports, OPEC’s biggest producer cut supply to mkt by 328k b/d in September to 9.36m b/d, from 9.688m b/d in August, according to a person with knowledge of Saudi Arabia’s oil policy. Prices in September were flat admit this supply cut which suggests along with the build in EIA inventories seen yesterday that Saudi Arabia may have also been forced by global demand weakness to cut supply through October also.



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This Is How Caterpillar Just Blew Away Q3 Earnings

Moments ago, CAT, which is a major DJIA component, just reported blowaway EPS of $1.72, far above the $1.35 expected. How did it achieve this stunning number which has pushed DJIA futures higher by almost half a percent?  Simple: first there was the usual exclusions, with "restructuring costs" adding back some $0.09 to the bottom line number. But the punchline was this: "In addition to the profit improvement, we have a strong balance sheet and through the first nine months of the year, we've had good cash flow.  So far this year, we've returned value to our stockholders by repurchasing $4.2 billion of Caterpillar stock and raising our quarterly dividend by 17 percent," Oberhelman said." And here is just how the surge in buyback activity looked in comparison to Q3 2013...



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Frontrunning: October 23

  • Canada PM vows crackdown after capital shocked by fatal attacks (Reuters)
  • Canada Gunman Was Convert to Islam With Criminal Record (BBG)
  • Some U.S. hospitals weigh withholding care to Ebola patients (Reuters)
  • But... Great rotation... Bond funds stock up on Treasuries in prep for market shock (Reuters)
  • Saudis at War With Islamic State Confront Echo of Kingdom’s Past (BBG)
  • EU’s Top Banker Warns of Rule Fixation ‘Going Beyond Reason (BBG)
  • U.S.-led air strikes killed 521 fighters, 32 civilians in Syria (Reuters)
  • Growing Kurdish Unity Helps West, Worries Turkey (WSJ)
  • Don’t Be Distracted by the Pass Rate in ECB’s Bank Exams (BBG)
  • Hedge Funds Add to Venture-Capital Bounty (WSJ)
  • Speed-of-Light Trading Grows in Europe With McKay Network (BBG)


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Futures Bounce On Stronger Europe Headline PMIs Despite Markit's Warning Of "Darker Picture" In "Anaemic" Internals

Perhaps the most interesting question from late yesterday is just how did the Chinese PMI rebound from 50.4 to 50.2, when the bulk of its most important forward-looking components, New Orders, Output, New Export Orders, posted a material deterioration? When asked, not even Markit could provide an explanation that seemed remotely reasonable so we can only assume the headline was goalseeked purely for the kneejerk reaction benefit of various algos that only focus on the headline and nothing else. Luckily, we didn't have much time to ponder this quandary as a few hours later we got the latest batch of Eurozone PMI numbers.



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How The Federal Reserve Is Purposely Attacking Savers

There's something we 'regular' citizens wrestle with that the elites never seem to: a sense of moral duty.



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It’s Not Just Spying – How The NSA Has Turned Into A Giant Profit Center For Corrupt Insiders

Dear NSA Employees, You Now Have a Green Light to Loot and Pillage. It’s Time to Get Paid: Are you just another one of those frustrated NSA employees who feels that unconstitutionally spying on your fellow citizenry under false pretenses isn’t giving you same thrill it once did? If so, have no fear.



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United States Of China: In Which States Is Your Landlord Most Likely To Be Chinese

America's #1 landlord may be private equity giant Blackstone, but closing in rapidly is none other than America's very own arch nemesis and ascendent superpower, China. But while until recently China's grand ambitions on US multi-family housing had largely flown under the radar, the recent sale of the Waldorf Astoria to a Chinese company has finally put the US on "China is coming" alert... and reincarnated a lot of the same jokes that swept the country by storm in the mid-80s when it appeared Japan, itself nursing a massive asset bubble, would run over Manhattan (everyone knows how that ended).



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The "China-And-Japan-PMI-Beat-So-Things-Must-Be-OK" Meme In 2 Simple Charts

The reactions in USDJPY, Nikkei 225, S&P futures, Gold, Treasury futures, and oil (in a word - none!) tells you all you need to know about the market's total loss of faith in the soft-survey-based PMI data from around the world (and in particular China and Japan). Despite dramatic weakness in a slew of hard-date economic indicators for both nations, the PMIs rose and beat. Japan's to 7-month highs (so much for moar QQE?) but New orders and Output tumbled. China rose and beat but all key components dropped. As the two charts below suggest... things in PMI data production-land need some better "adjustments" if they are to keep the dream alive...



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Meanwhile, This Is Who Is Quietly Buying All The Cheap Oil

With the US Shale Oil industry up in arms, Venezuela screaming, and Russia awkwardly quiet (as the Ruble slides with the falling oil price stabilizing domestic inflows), the 'secret' Saudi-US oil deal that pressured prices for crude down to $80 (18-month lows today) has 'hurt' a lot of the world's producer nations. However, as Bloomberg reports, there is one nation that is very grateful. The number of supertankers sailing toward China’s ports surged to a nine-month high as over 80 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) - the industry’s biggest ships - sail toward the Asian country’s ports. At an average of 2 million barrels each, the 160 million barrels will help refill China's 727 million barrel SPR which it started in 2012.



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It Will Take 398,879,561 Years To Pay Off The US Government's Debt

The US government’s debt is getting close to reaching another round number - $18 trillion. It currently stands at more than $17.9 trillion. But what does that really mean? The Social Security Administration just released data for the average yearly salary in the US in fiscal year that just ended. It stands at $44,888.16. The current debt level of over $17.9 trillion would thus take more than 398 million years of working at the average wage to pay off.



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7.6 Billion Reasons Why The US 'War On Drugs' In Afghanistan Failed

The US Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan is "disappointed," according the statement department latter below, responding to the Special Investigator General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) findings over poppy cultivation in the troubled nation. Simply put, despite the United States spending approximately $7.6 billion on counternarcotics efforts in Afghanistan (as of June 30, 2014), opium poppy cultivation levels in Afghanistan hit an all-time high in 2013 (with a 50% rise last year alone). Of course, like any good government agency, deny and blame someone else, as the DOD went on to state that "the failure to reduce poppy cultivation and increase eradication is due to the lack of Afghan government support for the effort."



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Caught On Tape - Some Folks Jumped The White House Fence, Again

Just weeks after WhiteHouseFenceJumperGate saw the head of the Secret Service dispatched - having been disappointed not to be able to implement her reforms that would ensure the safety of the White House, the agency reports:

*MAN STOPPED AFTER JUMPING WHITE HOUSE FENCE: SECRET SERVICE

What is worse - much worse - is this african-american chap proceeds to kick and harass the guard dogs sent to dispatch him... an egregious act in anyone's book.



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Central Banker Admits Central Bank Policy Leads To Wealth Inequality

Six years after QE started, and just about the time when we for the first time said that the primary consequence of QE would be unprecedented wealth and class inequality (in addition to fiat collapse, even if that particular bridge has not yet been crossed), even the central banks themselves - the very institutions that unleashed QE - are now admitting that the record wealth disparity in the world - surpassing that of the Great Depression and even pre-French revolution France - is caused by "monetary policy", i.e., QE.



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Goldman Explains 'The Road To Recovery' In 1 Simple Chart

Seven years after the start of the financial crisis, economic and financial conditions remain far from normal. In the ‘Wonderland’ of near-zero interest rates, many of the traditional relationships that have governed the way in which markets and cycles evolve have broken; the value of historical analysis has weakened. In Goldman's view, there are three very different near-term paths that economies and markets can now follow, and that imply very different outcomes for financial markets... (What GS realizes, in short, is The Fed is entirely boxed-in)



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Mapping China's Bursting Real Estate Bubble

With global growth concerns on the rise, whether a bust in the Chinese housing sector could threaten the economic activity and financial stability of the world’s largest contributor to growth is top of mind for Goldman Sachs. As Michael Pettis warns, "this story only has a few possible endings, all of which imply a significant reduction in economic growth as debt problems are addressed." The following 3 charts suggest Pettis is right...



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