A "Perfect Storm Is Coming" Deutsche Warns As Baltic Dry Falls To New Record Low
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2016 - 09:45
Following disappointing China PMI data and a collapse in US ISM Manufacturing imports data, the fact that The Baltic Dry Index has collapsed to fresh record lows will hardly be a surprise to many. However,as Deutsche Bank warns, a "perfect storm" is brewing in the dry bulk industry, as year-end improvements in rates failed to materialize, which indicates a looming surge in bankruptcies.
As Mideast Tensions Soared, Traders Bet On Another Plunge In Oil Prices: Here's Why
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2016 - 09:26
That wasn't supposed to happen. In the not so distant past, a dramatic escalation in tensions between OPEC nations (in this case Iran and Saudi Arabia) would have led to a spike in crude oil prices. However, as futures opened Sunday night, the brief rally in oil prices was met with selling pressure and instead of buying calls, traders loaded up on $30 puts. The oil market's different this time - here's why...
The Drain Continues: U.S. Exports More Gold To Hong Kong Than It Produces
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2016 - 08:42
As the Federal Reserve continues to prop up the highly leveraged debt based financial industry, the flow of U.S. gold heading East picked up significantly. According to the USGS most recently released survey, Hong Kong received 56% of total U.S. gold bullion exports in September.
This Is The 'New' Most Important Number For The S&P 500
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2016 - 08:21
Weakness in Breadth, volume, sentiment, and momentum all lead BofAML to warn "sell rallies" in stocks. Starting 2016 under pressure, the S&P 500 has big support at 1994-1990 but 1965 is the level at which things become perilous. Simply put, holding 1965 is required if a 'bounce' like late 2011 is expected.
First $1.5 Billion Hedge Fund Casualty Of 2016 Blames HFTs For Making A Mockery Of Investing
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2016 - 08:02
“We have come regretfully to the conclusion that the current algorithmically driven market environment is one which is increasingly incompatible with our fundamental, research orientated, investment process. The bear market in emerging market equities, which began in 2011, may eventually engulf developed markets too."
"It's Time For You To Leave": Oregon Sheriff Demands Militiamen "Peacefully" Depart
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2016 - 07:47
"You said you were here to help the citizens of Harney County. It is time for you to leave our community, go home to your families, and end this peacefully,”
Frontrunning: January 5
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2016 - 07:25- Global share market settles after stormy start to year (Reuters)
- Stocks Extend Losses as Yen, Gold Rise on Lingering China Unease (BBG)
- China battles to shore up stocks, yuan after globe-shaking slide (Reuters)
- Volkswagen faces billions in penalties as U.S. sues for environment violations (Reuters)
- Obama tightens gun rules, requires more background checks (Reuters)
Stocks Resume Rout After Massive Chinese Intervention Fails To Lift Shanghai, Calm Traders
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2016 - 06:52
After yesterday's historic -6.9% rout in the Shanghai Composite, which saw the first new marketwide circuit breaker trading halt applied to Chinese stocks (on its first day of operation), many were wondering if the Chinese government would intervene in both the once again imploding stock market, as well as China's plunging and rapidly devaluing currency. And, after the SHCOMP opened down -3%, the government did not disappoint and promptly intervened in both the Yuan as well as the stock market, however with very mixed results which global stocks took a sign that the "national team" is no longer focused solely on stocks, and have resumed selling for a second consecutive day.
For Kyle Bass This Is "The Greatest Investment Opportunity Right Now"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 23:47
"Given our views on credit contraction in Asia, and in China in particular, let's say they are going to go through a banking loss cycle like we went through during the Great Financial Crisis, there's one thing that is going to happen: China is going to have to dramatically devalue its currency."
Playing The Government’s Game: When It Comes To Violence, We All Lose
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 22:15
It doesn’t matter what the issue is - whether it’s a rancher standing his ground over grazing rights, a minister jailed for holding a Bible study in his own home, or a community outraged over police shootings of unarmed citizens - these are the building blocks of a political powder keg. Much like the heated protests that arose after the police shootings in Ferguson and Baltimore, there’s a subtext to the Oregon incident that must not be ignored, and it is simply this: America is a pressure cooker with no steam valve, and things are about to blow. Now all that remains is a spark, and it need not be a very big one, to set the whole powder keg aflame.
"It's Coming To A Head In 2016" - Why Bank of America Thinks The Probability Of A Chinese Crisis Is 100%
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 21:46
"It seems to us that the government’s policy options are rapidly narrowing – one only needs to look at how difficult it has been for the government to hold up GDP growth since mid-2014. A slow-down in economic growth is typically a prelude to financial sector instability. Putting it all together, it seems to us that many of these conflicts may come to a head in 2016."
The Tragicomedy Of Self-Defeating Monetary Policy
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 21:25
Bill Dudley and the Federal Reserve (Fed), in their efforts to influence economic growth may have created a speculative and consumption driven environment that is crushing productivity growth. Ingenuity, not debt, made America an economic powerhouse. If we are to resume down that path we need the Fed to end their “self-defeating” policies and in its place we must demand ingenuity from them. The Fed, along with government, needs to properly incent productivity. The Fed should start this arduous task by removing excessive stimulus which will take the speculative fervor out of markets and allow asset bubbles to deflate.
This Just Became The Most Important Map In Geopolitics
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 21:01
Because the sectarian divide is set to become the key geopolitical issue in the weeks and months ahead, we thought it an opportune time to present the following map from Goldman which does a nice job of delineating the Sunni-Shiite split in the Mid-East.
Some Canadians May Eat Themselves To Death Unless Oil Prices Rise, Doctor Warns
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 21:00
In the heart of Canada's oil patch, suicide rates are on the rise, property crime is soaring, and food bank usage is at all time highs. In case Albertans didn't have enough to worry about as their economy collapses under the weight of lower for longer crude, one doctor now warns that a protracted recession could cause an obesity epidemic.
After Tumbling At Open, Chinese Stocks Erase All Losses
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 20:40
Update: It's a miracle..."Someone" stepped in and bid the entire Chinese market higher off its huge opening gap down...
Despite the biggest liquidity injection (CNY130bn) in 4 months, it appears Kyle Bass' top trade remains well on target as Offshore Yuan plunges, underperforming Onshore Yuan despite the largest Fix devaluation in two months. In a word - it's chaos in Chinese markets. The Shanghai Composite looks to be opening down 3% - extending yesterday's losses (beyond the US session's ADR's move). What a mess.
