Tyler Durden's picture

Oil Soars Most Since Feb 2009 On OPEC Production Cut Headline Redux

Another day, another OPEC Production Cut rumor, and another massive swing in WTI Crude oil prices (+11.5% - biggest since Feb 09). But having run stops to these levels, we wonder what happens next?


Tyler Durden's picture

Don't Show Bill Dudley This Chart

The Fed's Bill Dudley just unleashed the most cognitively dissonant statement of his career. That superlative is highlighted by theses two headlines:

DUDLEY SAYS U.S. ECONOMY IS IN QUITE GOOD SHAPE
DUDLEY: DON'T SEE NEGATIVE RATES HAVING 'BIG CONSEQUENCE'

Try telling The BoJ's Kuroda that!!


Tyler Durden's picture

More Bad News For European Banks? ECB Leaks "Firm Support For A Deposit Rate Cut"

After starting out strongly this morning, with DB stock trading just shy of $17/share, European banks have seen some weakness in the past 30 minutes following a report from Reuters, in which sources were cited as saying that there is "firm support for a deposit rate cut within the European Central Bank's Governing Council."


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Americans' "Deflationary Mindset" Has Never Been Stronger

Having already warned of a "deflationary mindset," today's University of Michigan Confidence data suggests Americans are falling deeper into dis-inflation territory. Today's headline tumble in confidence to 4-month lows, with "hope" dropping to 6-month lows is dominated by the plunge in 5-10 year inflation expectations to 2.4% (from 2.7%) - a 36-year record low.


Tyler Durden's picture

Business Inventories Jump, Sales Tumble Sending Ratio To Recession-Warning Cycle Highs

After some stabilization into mid-2015, the ratio of business inventories-to-sales has surged as sales have disappointed and mal-investment-driven dreams have over-stocked. Business inventories rose 0.1% MoM in December (retail up 0.4%) and sales tumbled 0.6%. At 1.39x, the current ratio is flashing a warning that a deep de-stocking recession looms.


Tyler Durden's picture

Why NIRP (Negative Interest Rates) Will Fail Miserably

What NIRP communicates is: this sucker's going down, so sell everything and hoard your cash and precious metals. If that's what the central banks want households and enterprises to do, NIRP will be a rip-roaring success.


Tyler Durden's picture

The Curious Case Of The "Strong" January Retail Sales: It Was All In The Seasonal Adjustment

Even a modestly deeper look below the strong retail sales headline numbers once again reveals just how this "across the board beat" was accomplished. It was all in the seasonal adjustment.


Tyler Durden's picture

EU Ready To Restrict Passport-Free Travel, Austria To Close Border

"Each of the 26 countries in the open-travel Schengen Area is allowed to unilaterally put up border controls for a maximum of six months. That limit can be extended for up to two years if a member nation is found to be failing to protect its borders."


Tyler Durden's picture

S&P 500 Approaching Significant Levels

The correction in the equity markets has brought the S&P 500 down close to a confluence of key technical levels.


Tyler Durden's picture

Retail Sales Beat Expectations, Control Group Rises Most Since May Delaying "Fed Relent"

There was much at stake in today's retail sales report, because had the Census reported another miss in the headline, ex auto and control group data, it would have made the Fed's job of maintaing the illusion of a recovery into a rate hike cycle virtually impossible. Luckily for Yellen, the numbers came out and they were were beats across the board.


Tyler Durden's picture

Deutsche Bank Rallies On Modest Debt Buyback Plan, Schaeuble Proclaims "Strong, Resilient Bank"

Deustche Bank stock is ripping 10% higher after confirming old news that it will undertake a modest debt buyback of $2 billion and €3 billion (not including the CoCos). Have no fear though as Wolfgang Schaeuble proclaimed Deutsche Bank is a "strong bank" that ios "resilient" and "well positioned."


Tyler Durden's picture

Europe's Most Distressing Chart: For Banks 2016 Is Already Worse Than 2008

As the following chart from Reuters shows, the year-to-date stock price performance for most European banks is on pace to far surpass - to the downside - the dreadful for the global financial system 2008.


Tyler Durden's picture

Deutsche Bank: "Markets Are Crying Out For A Circuit Breaker", But There Is A Problem

DB's Jim Reid today writes that "Markets are crying out for a circuit breaker at the moment."  There is just one problem: nobody knows what this circuit breaks would and should be, or if it would even work.


Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: February 12

  • Yellen's dilemma: A downturn with no easy response (Reuters)
  • Clinton, Sanders clash over Obama as they vie for minority votes (Reuters)
  • Risk Grows of Markets Sparking Recession (WSJ)
  • Global Stock Rout Eases Amid Oil Advance as German Bonds Decline (BBG)
  • U.S. Benchmark Yield Will Be at Record Low in March at This Rate (BBG)
  • Oil Prices Rally on Hopes of Production Cuts (WSJ)

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