If Companies Are Telling The Truth, Profit Margins Are About To Collapse The Most In The 21st Century
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/03/2016 - 13:18
if companies are being honest about their intentions to raise wages, then US corporate profitability is about to fall off a cliff. As the chart below from JPM shows, the difference between "intentions to raise prices" less "intentions to raise wages" - a proxy for operating margins - has not been this negative in the 21st century.
Oil Spike Risk: Iran Police Use Water Cannon On Angry Protesters Near Saudi Consulate
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/03/2016 - 12:40
Bank of America Explains How Central Banks Rigged And Manipulated The Market
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/03/2016 - 10:51
"Essentially central banks, by unfairly inflating asset prices have compressed risk like a spring to unfairly tight levels. Unfortunately, the market is aware the price of risk is not correct, but they can’t fight it, and everyone is forced to crowd into the same trade. By manipulating markets they have also reduced investors’ inherent conviction by rendering fundamentals less relevant."
- Bank of America
Derailed? What Rail Traffic Tells Us About The U.S. Economy
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/03/2016 - 10:07
Rail volumes provides a mixed picture of the US economy at this point: oil & gas and mining-related sectors are taking a real beating, some consumer sectors seem to be holding up and there are signs of weakness in the housing sector. 2016 should witness some type of a resolution here.
From $500,000 To $170 Million In A Few Months: The Next "Subprime Trade" Emerges
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/03/2016 - 09:37
Ever since it started making complicated bets against some leveraged ETFs, Miller’s Catalyst Macro Strategies Funds has since grown from $500,000 in assets at the start of the year to about $170 million. It achieved a more than 50 percent return this year, placing it far ahead of its competitors.
"Divine Vengeance Will Befall Saudi Arabia," Iran Warns, As Global Outcry Over Execution Grows
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/03/2016 - 09:14
The flames of sectarian violence have been thorougly fanned in the Mid-East after Saudi Arabia killed a prominent Shiite cleric in the largest mass execution carried out by Riyadh in a quarter century. As protesters torched the Saudi embassy in Tehran, the Ayatollah warned that "the Almighty God shall not ignore the innocents’ blood and the unjustly spilled blood will backfire on the politicians and the executives of this regime very quickly."
ISIS: The 'Enemy' The US Created, Armed, & Funded
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2016 - 22:00
To delve into Daesh’s convoluted money trail, one must first explore its equally convoluted origins. And in both areas, the role of the U.S. and its allies can not be ignored.
The Incredible Shrinking Benefits Of Massive Japanese Money Printing
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2016 - 21:20
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Google Is Collecting Information On Public School Students – Here's How
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2016 - 20:40
Today, Google and many other tech companies are increasingly part of students’ daily classroom lives under the “school official” designation. And that leaves parents in the dark about who has access to an increasingly large cache of information about their children and may compromise their privacy down the line, experts say. Google says it has “always been firmly committed to keeping student information private and secure.” Private and secure, ok, but they are still collecting this data aren’t they?
What Does The Future Hold For Negative Rates In Europe? Goldman Answers
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2016 - 20:00
While the market might have been disappointed by the ECB’s “underdelivery in December, it came as a relief for the Riksbank, the SNB, the Norges Bank, and the Nationalbank who are effectively forced to cut each time the ECB eases or risk seeing upward pressure on their respective currencies. That dynamic has led to a veritable race to the Keynesian bottom with Norway as the last man standing in terms of conducting monetary policy with rates above zero. As we enter the new year, a number of questions remain regarding Europe's headlong plunge into NIRP-dom.
2015 Year In Review: "Terminal Phase" Excess & Peak Cognitive Dissonance
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2016 - 19:20
Important pillars of the bull case evaporated throughout 2015. Global price pressures weakened, the global Credit backdrop deteriorated and the global economy decelerated. The huge bets on central bank policies left markets at high risk for abrupt reversals and trade unwinds – 2015 The Year of the Erratic Crowded Trade. Indeed, a global bear market commenced yet most remain bullish. Serious and objective analysts would view this ominously.
Earnings Revisions Tumble To Weakest In 9 Months, BofAML Warns "More To Come"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2016 - 18:00
Until recently healthcare had been the only sector offering any optimism from an earnings perspective but even that has collapsed now. The three-month earnings revision ratio (ERR) fell for the fifth month in a row to 0.53 from 0.55 - its lowest level in nine months, indicating twice as many cuts as increases. As BofAML notes, this is well below the long-term average of 0.84, and given S&P 500 sales revisions have collapsed to April 2009 lows, they forecast more cuts are likely to come... and a muted January effect looms.
"Tread Lightly" - 2016 Technical Outlook
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2016 - 17:20
Wall Street forecasts for 2015 were largely wrong across the board. Now we have no problem with anybody being wrong, but wwhat we do take issue with is that Wall Street largely insisted on staying wrong even though the facts were changing in 2015. The only thing that really changed was the narrative, i.e. “well if earnings are down so what then markets go up because fund managers have to chase performance”. And hence you end up with overly optimistic forecasts not based on reality. But Wall Street is in the business of selling supply to the public. If there was one key trading lesson to draw from 2015 it is this: Ignore the noise and focus on the technicals.
Trump Muslim Ban Comments Featured In Al-Qaeda Propaganda Video
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2016 - 16:40
A new propaganda video from al-Qaeda's Somali affiliate al-Shabaab features clips of Donald Trump alongside the following warning from the late Anwar al-Awlaki: "There are ominous clouds gathering in your horizon. Yesterday, America was a land of slavery, segregation, lynching, and Ku Klux Klan. And tomorrow it will be a land of religious discrimination and concentration camps."
