Continuing deceleration of population growth offset by rate cuts incentivizing ever greater debt loads (with continually underperforming GDP) was the central banks only play. And now as population growth and decelerating demand really begin to wane...the playbook is basically exhausted save for one play...simply print money with which to buy and "permanently retire" those assets. Think Treasury's, think MBS, think equity's...think anything that can be digitally created and digitally destroyed all to perpetually shrink the outstanding float (think perpetual short squeeze). How long this can maintain asset values northward march in the face of the populations southward divergence is anybody's guess.
Following Monday's visa snub by Merkel, Turkey's president said he would not take any steps regarding the implementation of migrant readmission until progress was made on visa liberalization. He also said funds that the EU had promised to pay Ankara for taking back refugees had not been paid. Turkey added it is not worried if a decision cannot be reached, with Ankara’s new EU affairs minister saying that the EU was not the "sole option."
France may go dark tomorrow, but for residents of downtown Seattle elevators ground to a halt and lights went out across downtown Seattle late Wednesday morning as a major power outage struck. According to Komo News, the outage struck at about 11:30 a.m. The cause of the disruption was an equipment failure at Massachusetts Street Substation and was expected to last about two hours, according to Seattle City Light.
Today we find an even more striking example of just how broken the global bond market has become thanks to the ECB because as Reuters writes, Bayer could receive financing from none other than the European Central Bank to help fund its takeover of the world's largest seed company, US-based Monsanto, according to the terms of the ECB's bond-buying program.
CLINTON SPOKESMAN SAYS INSPECTOR GENERAL'S REPORT SHOWS CLINTON'S EMAIL PRACTICES CONSISTENT WITH THAT OF FORMER SECRETARIES OF STATE
While markets are myopically co-moving to the siren songs of Fed hawks and doves, deteriorating fundamentals are becoming harder to ignore. Like wildfires, it’s hard to predict how quickly and where market panic will spread to next. However, the chain-reaction of peak consumer credit growth, softening retail sales, and tightening credit conditions does not bode well for REITs going forward.
Following strikes over the unpopular French labor reform, that started over the weekend and crippled the French refining industry leading to gasoline shortages and rationing, things are about to get far more serious for the country whose economy has already been threatened with a sharp slowdown as a result of a relentless wave of labor unrest. According to Reuters, staff in France's 19 nuclear plants - which by definition we assume is essential - have voted to go on strike on Thursday as part of protests over a labour reform, according to a CGT union official.
On December 10, 2014 the city of Detroit exited bankruptcy. It was the largest municipal bankruptcy in US history. The bondholders were totally screwed in favor of the pensioners (not that I generally like bondholders). Regardless, everything was supposed to be fixed. It wasn’t.
Despite US equity investors' exuberance over bouncing crude oil prices, the world's crude producers continue to suffer and while Venezuela is in the headlines every day (having already collapsed into chaos), Nigeria appears the nearest to that abyss next. Having urged investors "don't panic" last year, and seeing dollar reserves drying up rapidly earlier this year, recent "lies" about the nation's statistics have raised fears of a looming devaluation as FX forwards have crashed to 291 Naira to the dollar (current peg is 199).
Following yesterday's surprisingly strong 2 Year auction, the US Treasury pulled off another blistering auction when moments ago it sold $34 billion in 5 year paper (Cusip R77), at a high yield of 1.395%, stopping through the when issued by 0.8 bps, a surprising outcome following two consecutive tailing auctions, with a Bid to Cover of 2.60, the highest since November 2014. Incidentally, the yield of 1.395% was lower than last month's 1.41% when June rate hike odds were in the single digits.
'... the prospects for another shock from China as the dollar strengthens on the back of the Fed re-pricing, suggests that financial conditions, and thus the future path for Fed rate hikes, will not be immune to this re-pricing"