Cheap, easy credit has created moral hazard and nurtured magical thinking throughout the global economy.
In the latest example that there are generous, perhaps even noble people, still left, Crowdfunding site Indiegogo has released a crowd sourced "Greek Bailout Fund" which in just 1 day has already managed to raise around €100,000 from over 6,300 contributors. Noble, generous... and quite idiotic, for one simple reason - the math is horribly wrong.
While the 20-City index rose 4.9% YoY (but missed expectations by the most since July 2014), Case-Shiller's US Home Price Index dropped 0.02% in April - the first MoM drop since May 2014. Of course, all real estate is local and we note Denver and San Francisco reported the highest year-over-year gains with price increases of 10.3% and 10.0%, respectively, over the last 12 months. As S&P's David Blitzer warns, "home prices continue to rise across the country, but the pace is not accelerating."
Having thrown the kitchen sink at their collapsing ponzi-scheme of a market in the past two days, only to see stocks open and crash once again overnight, it appears The PBOC went full intervention-tard in the middle of the morning session. With CHINEXT down over 7% and Shnghai down over 4%, the manipulation was rooted in CSI-300 futures as while cash markets saw margin calls and liquidation, futures were surging. By the close China's 'Nasdaq' had ripped 13% off its lows and the broad market's intrday swing was the largest since 1992... The PBOC's got your back.
In waht appears to be some level of German backing down, fiery FinMin Schaeuble has, reportedly said the following:
*SCHAEUBLE SAID TO SAY GREECE MAY BE ABLE TO TAP EU SUPPORT FUND
*SCHAEUBLE SAID TO SEE GREECE STAYING IN EURO EVEN IF 'NO' VOTE
Thus spurring the probability of a consequence-less "no" vote on Sunday enabling the increased negotiating position that The Greek government had hoped for. Of course, desperate for any excuse, stocks and EUR are rallying on this and bonds are selling off.
- EU in last-ditch bid to Greece, urges "yes" vote to bailout (Reuters)
- In? Out? In between? A Greek legal riddle for EU (Reuters)
- Tsipras Says EU Won’t Eject Greece as Cost ‘Immense’ (BBG)
- Empty Greek ATMs Force Tourists to Stiff Santorini Cabbies (BBG)
- Anti-austerity protests in Greece as bank shutdown bites (Reuters)
- Puerto Rico governor calls for bankruptcy; adviser says island 'insolvent' (Reuters)
- Puerto Rico Urges Concessions From Creditors (WSJ)
- Hilsenrath - For Fed to Delay Rate Hikes, Global Tumult Would Need to Infect U.S. (WSJ)
GREEK FINANCE MINISTER SAYS GREECE WILL NOT PAY IMF ON TUESDAY.
Regulators across Europe are beginning to curtail trading in Greek assets as the country’s stock market remains closed and Greeks grapple with capital controls and prepare for a default to the IMF at midnight.
In our overnight market wrap, we said that with the Greek D-Day doubling as quarter end for countless hedge funds most of which are now suddenly underwater, there would be a plethora of rumors designed to spark buying momentum algos which would provide brief selling opportunities. Alas, Germany appears to have crushed that particular option, when moments ago a German made it clear that at this point the only catalyst will be the now virtually certain Greek default to the IMF at midnight (+/- 1 leap second) Greek time. To wit: TOO LATE TO DISCUSS GREEK PROGRAM EXTENSION: GERMAN OFFICIAL
The Greek D-(efault) day has arrived, and with it so has quarter-end window dressing for many underwater hedge funds (recall the S&P is now red for the 2015) which means the rumor mill today will be off the charts. And sure enough, less than an hour ago, futures exploded higher as did the EURUSD, following another "report/rumor" of a last minute detente between Greece and the Troika when Greek Ekahtimerini said that "Tsipras is reconsidering the last-ditch offer made by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, sources have told Kathimerini."
For years there had been speculation, rumor and hearsay that JPM had cornered the US commodities market. Now, finally, we have documented proof.
"There have been some people that worry that the military may actually get involved. It wouldn't surprise me - there are some people in Greece that have raised the whole prospect of potential civil war."
How do you change the way people think? You start by changing the words they use.
In the last 2 days, PBOC has thrown everything at the ponzi-fest they call a rational market. An RRR cut, a Benchmark rate cut, a rev repo rate cut, a CNY50 Bn rev repo injection, a stamp duty cut, IPO halts (cut supply), and last but not least permission to speculate with a reassurance that shares on a solid foundation. The outcome of all this policy-panic - CHINEXT (China's Nasdaq) is down another 6% today (down 25% in 3 days) and aside from CSI-300 futures, all other major Chinese indices are in free-fall. Add to that the fact that industrial metals are collapsing with steel rebar limit down and it appears Central Bank Omnipotence is under threat.