Central Banks are losing control everywhere...
Just as we detailed last week, and it appears Rep. Hensarling has been reading, when pressed on The Fed's legal authority to take interest rates negative, Janet Yellen gushed that "Fed authority for negative rates is still a question." This appears to have been taken as bad news by the market (cutting off the potential easing paths of the future in a world of NIRP), and stocks, crude, USDJPY have all tumbled.
After finishing sixth in the key New Hampshire primary, New Jersey governor Chris Christie is set to bow out of the race for the White House. "We’ve decided that we’re going to go home to New Jersey tomorrow and we’re going to take a deep breath and see what the final results are tonight because that matters," he said.
It was illuminating, if not surprising, that during an interview with Bloomberg TV discussing the future of Deutsche Bank, John Mack said that "there’s no question in my mind, it is absolutely good for every penny." In other words, "Deutsche Bank is fine." Why is he so confident? According to Mack, "this idea that I heard yesterday, the possibility of not making their interest payments, it’s just absurd. The government will not let that happen."
Following last night's across the board build in inventories from API, DOE reported a surprising 750k drawdown (much less than the 3.2mm build expected). However, across the rest of the complex - inventories rose: Cushing +523 build (13th week in a row), Gasoline +1.26mm build, and Distillates +1.28mm build (first in 4 weeks). Having tumbled early on from Yellen's undovishness, crude spiked on the headline draw (back above $29) but is struggling to hold gains as BP's earlier storage concerns grow more prescient.
Rumors of ECB monetization (which would be highly problematic in the new "bail-in" world) and old news of the emergency debt-buyback plan have sparked an epic ramp in Deutsche Bank's stock this morning (+11% - the most since Oct 2011). This extreme volatility is, however, eerily reminiscent of 2007/8 when headline hockey sparked pumps and dumps on a daily basis in Lehman stock... until it was all over.
Like a stock halted limit down on the Shenzhen, there's a very good chance that once suspended, Schengen will never again be open for "trading".
"BOTTOM LINE: Chair Yellen’s prepared remarks to the House Financial Services Committee contained little new information on the monetary policy outlook, and were roughly in line with comments made by Vice Chair Fischer and New York Fed President Dudley over the past couple weeks. She continued to highlight the FOMC’s expectation for “gradual” increases in the federal funds rate."
Janet Yellen's "Humphrey-Hawkins" Testimony: Economic Strains, Tightening Pains, & No Stock Gains - Live FeedSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/10/2016 - 09:56
Fed Chair Yellen will be presenting her semi-annual monetary policy testimony - sometimes called the "Humphrey-Hawkins" testimony - today (House Financial Services Committee) and tomorrow (Senate Banking Committee). Her prepared remarks offered little new information over the January FOMC Statement but the Q&A will likely be the most market-moving as politicians likely demand she "get back to work" for the good of the nation's shareholders.
Broad equity indexes have declined significantly since July 2015, and forward price-to-earnings ratios have fallen to a level closer to their averages of the past three decades.
Leverage [among speculative-grade and unrated firms] firms has risen to historical highs, especially among those in the oil industry, a development that points to somewhat elevated risks of distress for some business borrowers.
"Smart Money" flow is shifting in a disturbingly similar pattern to those seen at the prior 2 cyclical tops...
The only question that matters today: is a "downbeat undertone", aka bad news, good news for stocks once again, and will the market relapse to its old "bad news is great news" regime, or will it take advantage of today's brief European bank euphoria to sell the rally as it has throughout all of 2016?
WTI Crude futures are tumbling as Yellen's prepared remarks offered little for the doves and played down growth due to "financial strains." Back in the red after some overnight hope from Europe, WTI is back to a $27 handle once again...
With world markets begging for moar, Janet Yellen's prepared Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony was a disappointment:
- *YELLEN: FED EXPECTS ECONOMY TO WARRANT ONLY GRADUAL RATE RISES (everything is fine)
- *YELLEN: JOB, WAGE GAINS SHOULD SUPPORT INCOMES AND SPENDING (everything is awesome)
- *FED REPORT: LEVERAGE RISKS IN FINANCIAL SECTOR `REMAIN LOW' (so don't worry about banks)
- *YELLEN: FINANCIAL STRAINS COULD WEIGH ON OUTLOOK IF PERSISTENT (so, there's chance)
The bottom line this is simply a rerhash of the Jan FOMC Statement and does not offer enouigh dovishness for the market.
Back in November, Nils Smedegaard Andersen, CEO of Maersk, the world’s largest shipping company, gave the world a reality check when it comes to global growth and trade. “The world’s economy is growing at a slower pace than the International Monetary Fund and other large forecasters are predicting” Andersen told Bloomberg. On Wednesday, we got a look at how the challenging environment affected Maersk's bottom line in 2015. The picture wasn't pretty.