Treasury Curve Collapses To Flattest In 8 Years
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 - 10:51
This was not supposed to happen. The spread between the 2Y Treasury yield (which is soaring 7bps today) and 10Y (higher by 3bps) has plunged back below 120bps. The current cliff-edge has been support for the curve four times in the last 8 years but with GC rates blowing out to 7 year highs, one wonders if the size of the moves means we break to new regime lows.
If You Want To Limit The Power Of The Super-Wealthy, Stop Using Their Money
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 - 10:31
Everyone who is convinced that the current status quo is permanent and unbreakable should consider what happened to the super-wealthy private landholders of the Western Roman Empire. When the empire's power to coerce broke down, the super-wealthy vanished into the dustbin of history. Few believed that possible in 475 AD, but history isn't a matter of belief. Believing it isn't possible doesn't stop history.
Young Americans' Confidence In Economy Surges As Hopes Of "55 And Older" Shatter
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 - 10:17
Consumer Confidence among Over-55 Americans is at its lowest since September 2014. On the other hand, confidence among the Under-35 generation is its highest in 9 years (as the lowest income earners saw the largest surge in confidence in history - from 44.2. to 73.4). The 'optimism' gap between young and old Americans has never, ever been greater, which is ironic since it is the 55-and-older generation who have record jobs (while those 25-54 have collapsed since the great recession).
In The "Year When Nothing Worked", This Handful Of Traders Made Billions
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 - 09:52
While most hedge funds will be glad to close the books on a year in which they once again dramatically underperformed a market which hugged the flatline courtesy of just a few stocks (even as most stocks posted substantial declines) and where "hedge fund hotels" such as Valeant suffered dramatic implosions, a handful of traders generated impressive returns for their investors and made billions by going against the herd.
2016 Is An Easy Year To Predict
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 - 09:26
No year is ever easy to predict, if only because if it were, that would take all the fun out of life. But still, predictions for 2016 look quite a bit easier than other years. This is because a whole bunch of irreversible things happened in 2015 that were not recognized for what they are, either intentionally or by ‘accident’. Things that will therefore now be forced to play out in 2016, when denial will no longer be an available option. Simply put, 2016 will be the year when a lot of ‘underlying wealth’ evaporates.
Drone Footage Of The Largest Ship To Ever Dock In The US
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 - 09:13
October Case-Shiller Home Prices Soar Most Since March
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 - 09:08
While it is two months delayed (and home sales have tumbled since), Case-Shiller reports that home prices rose 0.84% MoM in October, beating expectations and the biggest monthly rise since March. While the YoY gains barely missed expectations at +5.54%, Miami, Tampa, and San Francisco all saw the biggest gains as Chicago, Cleveland, and San Diego saw the biggest drops in home prices.
Markets Are Going Nuts
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 - 08:56
From stocks (Dow up 460 points from pre-Christmas lows) and VIX (futures getting whacked), to FX (total craziness in EUR and GBP); and from Bonds (2Y underperforming this morning!) to Commodities (Copper soaring almost 3%, Crude spiking), it appears markets have gone nuts this morning...
Safe On The Sidelines - 405 Days And Counting
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 - 08:46
The S&P 500 closed at 2052 on November 18,2014. That was 405 days ago, and despite the rips and dips in the interim the broad market average has gone nowhere.
In Latest Blow To Apple, Taiwan Makers Cut iPhone Shipments Up To 10%
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 - 08:25
While the straws have been building on the camel's back of Apple's "no brainer" status over the past few months, today's news from DigiTimes appears to be the most damning yet on the 'peak Apple' phenomenon. Apple share are fading off early market highs as demand for iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus appear to have slowed down recently, shipments of iPhone devices from production lines in the fourth quarter of 2015 are likely to be 5-10% lower than originally expected, according to Taiwan-based supply chain makers.
Erdogan Says Assad "Mercilessly Killed 400,000 People", Accuses Opposition Of "Treason"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 - 08:15
"You cannot go anywhere by supporting a regime that has mercilessly killed 400,000 innocent people with conventional and chemical weapons."
"I believe that the treachery network dealing a blow to our country's unity will learn a lesson it deserves."
Frontrunning: December 29
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 - 07:32- The World's Richest People Got Poorer This Year (BBG)
- Oil hovers near 11-year lows on abundant supply, slowing demand (Reuters)
- Oil-Producing States Battered as Tax-Gushing Wells Are Shut Down (BBG)
- A Bold Few Traders Earn Billions Flouting Rivals (WSJ)
- Islamic State ruling aims to settle who can have sex with female slaves (Reuters)
- Winter Storm Snarls Republican Presidential Traffic (BBG)
- Donald Trump Urges Supporters to the Polls (BBG)
Global Stocks Rebound, US Stocks To Reopen Back In The Green For 2015 As Oil Halts Slide
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 - 06:58
Santa Claus is cutting it close: after stocks closed down yesterday, and just fractionally red for the year, the jolly old gift-giver (who now has activist investors breathing down his neck) has just three trading days to push if not stocks then the market into the green for the year. And so far, so good, with US equity futures rising by 8 points or 0.4%, on the back of some modest renewed Dollar strength but mostly on oil, which after yesterday's big slide, has managed to stem the decline and is up fractionally, just under $37, along with other commodities if not copper, which falls for second day.
Something Just Snapped In Saudi Arabia
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 - 01:53
Following yesterday's budget (deficit) and the 'sacrifice-the-people's-comfort-for-the-death-of-US-Shale' plan that we detailed here, it appears market concerns about Saudi Arabia's forward-looking health are rising. As Bloomberg reports, USDSAR 12-month forwards jumped 250pts (the most since December 2007) to 725bps (the highest level since March 1999) implying expectations of a looming de-pegged, devaluation. Perhaps just as worrying is this is the same pattern that played out in August as Yuan weakness sparked HIBOR stress, leading to SAR forward weakness and then US equity market collapse.
Caught On Tape: Russia Unleashes Massive Bombing Raid On Militant Convoy
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/28/2015 - 23:49
