• Marc To Market
    08/29/2015 - 10:18
    Dollar recovered from the exaggerated panic at the start of last week.  Outlook is still constructive.  Here is an overview of the technical condition of currencies, bonds, oil , and S&...

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Crash? What Crash? Dow Goes Green On Week

So does this mean a September rate hike is back on the table?



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Russia Refuses To Participate In Ukraine Debt Restructuring

War-torn Ukraine has reportedly reached a restructuring deal with a group of creditors headed by Franklin Templeton, according to the country’s finance minister Natalie Jaresko. The terms of the agreement call for a 20% writedown and a reprofiling that includes a maturity extension of four years and an across-the-board 7.75% coupon. Vladimir Putin isn't interested.



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Morning Has Broken: A Deep Dive Into The Trading Patterns Of The American Retail Invetor

Americans associate the morning with “Time to trade equities”. They hear news – in the case of the last few days, bad news from overseas – first thing in the morning. By the time the market opens, they have made their decisions and entered their orders. About half as many will check in around the close to see how things turned out, but for many the next piece of market news won’t hit their mental “Screen” until 20 hours or so later. 



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September Rate Hike Back On Table: Q2 GDP Soars In Revision From 2.3% To 3.7% Driven By Record Inventory Build

Well, if the Fed is truly data-dependent, September is now squarely back on the table following the first revision of (double seasonally-adjusted) Q2 GDP data which soared from 2.3% to a whopping 3.7%, blowing out the Wall Street consensus estimate of 3.2%, and printing above the highest Wall Street forecast (the 3.6% from JPM). The reason for the surge was simple: from an inventory build of $124 in the first GDP estimate, the BEA now sees a total of $136.2 billion in inventory build in Q2. This is an all time record, and a number which suggests the upcoming inventory liquidation will be truly epic, not to mention recessionary.



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Initial Jobless Claims Ends Losing Streak, Unchanged Since January

After four weeks of rising - the longest streak since Feb 2009 - initial claims dropped very modestly to 271k this week. This means initial jobless claims has gone nowhere since January 23rd.



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The Stock Market After The Mini Crash

Crash waves are notoriously volatile – several of the biggest one day rallies in history have occurred before and during crash waves. This makes short term forecasting even more of a coin flip than it normally is. However, we believe it is important not to lose sight of the forest for the trees; stock markets around the world have been in bubbles driven by extremely loose monetary policy, which ipso facto allows us to identify them as an example of artificial price distortion. Such bubbles always collapse sooner or later – unless the monetary authority decides to simply destroy the currency it issues, as has happened in Zimbabwe and is currently happening in countries like Venezuela and to a slightly lesser extent Argentina. We don’t expect the central banks of the developed nations to follow suit, at least not yet.



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Tiffany Stock Tumbles After Revenue And Profit Drops, EPS Slide 16%; Forecast Cut; Strong Dollar Blamed

Even the rich are starting to feel the pinch, at least according to the favorite jeweler of the upwardly mobile middle-to-upper class (especially in China and Japan), Tiffany & Co., which earlier today reported Q2 EPS of $0.86, below the $0.91 expected, with GAAP EPS of $0.81 some 16% below the $0.96 record last year. Like other retailers, TIF was quick to blame the surging dollar (which isn't going anywhere if the Fed indeed proceeds with a rate hike),  blaming it for lowering the value of the Tiffany’s sales overseas, where the company gets most of its revenue. Currency fluctuations also have kept tourists from making purchases at U.S. stores, dealing a second blow to revenue.



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Frontrunning: August 27

  • Virginia TV journalists killed by suspect with 'powder keg' of anger (Reuters)
  • Policeman shot to death and three women stabbed, one fatally, in Louisiana (Reuters)
  • China Intervened Today to Shore Up Stocks Ahead of Military Parade (Reuters)
  • Margin Calls Bite Investors, Banks (WSJ)
  • "Computer glitch" is preventing dozens of mutual funds, ETFs from promptly pricing their securities (WSJ)
  • Oil prices rise more than 4 percent as equities rally (Reuters)
  • Oil Industry Needs Half a Trillion Dollars to Endure Price Slump (BBG)


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Aggressive Chinese Intervention Prevents Another Rout, Sends Stocks Soaring 5% In Last Trading Hour; US Futures Jump

After a 5 day tumbling streak, which saw Chinese stock plunge well over 20% and 17% in just the first three days of this week, overnight the Shanghai Composite was hanging by a thread (and threat) until the last hour of trading. In fact, this is what the SHCOMP looked like until the very end: Up 2.6%, up 1.2%, up 2.8%, up 0.6%, up 2%... down 0.2%. And then the cavalry came in: "Heavyweight stocks like banks and insurance companies helped pull up the index, and it’s possibly China Securities Finance entering the market again to shore up stocks," Central China Sec. strategist Zhang Gang told Bloomberg by phone. Net result: the Composite, having been red just shortly before the close, soared higher by 156 points or 5.4%, showing the US stock market just how it's down.



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What Would Happen If Everyone Joins China In Dumping Treasurys?

On Tuesday evening, we quantified the staggering cost of China’s near daily open FX operations in support of the yuan. In short, the new currency regime has led the PBoC to dump more US paper in the past two weeks than it had YTD. In conclusion, we asked if anyone else was set to join China in liquidating US Treasurys at a never before seen pace. Here's the answer and what it means for the US economy and monetary policy going forward.



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Western Democracy Is An Endangered Species On Its Way To Extinction

Just as the Roman Empire ended in the destruction of the Roman people, the American Empire will end in the destruction of the American people. Judging from histories, Roman citizens were superior to American citizens; yet, Rome failed. Americans shouldn’t expect any other outcome. The price to be paid for insouciance, self-satisfaction, and complicity is high.



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Virgina Killer Sent "Suicide Note" To ABC, Says Massacre Is "Race War" In Reaction To Charleston Shooting

“Why did I do it? I put down a deposit for a gun on 6/19/15. The Church shooting in Charleston happened on 6/17/15…”

"Yes, it will sound like I am angry...I am. And I have every right to be. But when I leave this Earth, the only emotion I want to feel is peace....”

“The church shooting was the tipping point…but my anger has been building steadily...I’ve been a human powder keg for a while…just waiting to go BOOM!!!!”.



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Japan's Kuroda Denies Existence Of Currency War As China Devalues Yuan To Fresh 4 Year Lows, Injects CNY150bn Liquidity

The night began much like any other morning in Asia - with pure comedy gold from Japanese leadership with BOJ's Kuroda saying he is "not concerned about currency wars, there is no currency war," adding that he has "no plans for further easing." That coincided with a drift lower in Japanese stocks from the US close - but mots of Asian stock markets were green buoyed by America's victory against malicious sellers for the first time in a week. Meanwhile, in China, margin debt drops to a 7-month lows (but is still up 133% YoY). But as rumor-mongers face death squads and any broker caught not buying with both hands and feet faces prison, it is no surprise that Chinese stocks are higher in the pre-open (A50 +5%, CSI +2.7%) but large corporate bond issues are being canceled willy nilly even as China devalues Yuan to fresh 4-year lows (6.4085) and adds CNY150bn liquidity.



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North Dakota Becomes First State To Legalize Drones Weaponized With Tasers, Tear Gas, Rubber Bullets & Sound Cannons

You could see the writing on the walls years ago. In an increasingly authoritarian, lawless, surveillance state like America, it was always inevitable that drones would be weaponized. In North Dakota, this is now a reality.



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China's Great Wall Of Worry - Goldman Warns China Options Signal Caution Ahead

China has been the epicenter of recent market concerns as global markets focus on China's growth trajectory. Equity markets have been hit hard but the question is - how much further is there to go before it's over? Goldman Sachs looks at what the options market telling us? With HSCEI implied volatility over 40, a significant term structure inversion, and high skew, Goldman warns options all signal caution ahead.



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