Before the world morphed into what it has become, the relationship between stock prices and intraday ranges was somewhat positively correlated (as one would imagine) - higher prices and a steady vol means absolute ranges will trend higher. However, the last few years - and most especially the last few months - as equity index prices soared, so intraday ranges collapsed. In fact, the last 3 times a new low range was made, that marked a local high in stock prices. Along with the fact that the VIX term structure is the steepest since the pre-Bullard collapse, hedging - as opposed to BTFTAH - seems more appropriate in the short-term at least.
With more than 60 percent of all Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, and a whopping 24 percent of the country has more credit card debt than emergency savings, when the coming economic crisis strikes, more than half the country is going to be financially wiped out within weeks. If you are trusting in the government to save you when things fall apart, you will be severely disappointed.
So did Greece write the Greek reform memo or was it someone from the European Commission?
"The best environment for man is the environment of liberty." - former President of the Czech Republic, Vaclav Klaus
Liberty is a fundamental human right; it is the cornerstone of our existence. But liberty is under attack from all directions, whether through higher state control or individuals themselves. Liberty is in search for its protector.
When last week's API inventory hit, WTI crude tumbled $2 (only to rip higher the next day on a massive EIA build - yeah). Today, API reported an 8.9 million barrel build, greater than expected again and that pushed WTI Crude back to a $48 handle testing the day's lows...
The Federal Financial Institution Examination Council recently told banks that, “if a particular asset . . . has features that could place it in more than one risk category, it is assigned to the category that has the lowest risk weight.” This gives banks extraordinary latitude to underreport the risk levels of their investments. Bankers can now arbitrarily decide that a risky asset ‘has features’ of a lower risk asset, and thus they can completely misrepresent their investments. Bottom line, it’s becoming extremely difficult to have confidence in western banks’ financial health.
As the chasm between earnings (tumbling most since 2008) & macro data (90% misses in February and weakest in 11 months) and the inexorable rise of the US equity market yawns ever wider, we thought the following clip (from South Korea) perfectly summed up what happens next...
Remember when shortly after the avalanche victory of the GOP in both the House and the Senate the pundits said that with the lame duck president in his final stretch, now is the time when long-overdue legislation would finally get passed? They were wrong.
- OBAMA NOTIFIES U.S. SENATE OF VETO OF KEYSTONE PIPELINE APPROVAL BILL
- OBAMA VETOES REPUBLICAN ATTEMPT TO FORCE KEYSTONE APPROVAL
As Bloomberg adds, Obama’s action sets up new round of votes in Congress that will likely fail as supporters don’t have enough backing to override veto. As a reminder, the Senate vote was 62-36, while House vote was 270-152; with a two-thirds majority required to override veto.
"For me the shorting opportunity looks as great as it was in 07/09, if only because people are still looking at what is hap-pening and believe that each event is an individual, isolated event. Whether it’s the oil price fall or the Swiss franc move, they’re seen as exceptions. ... we used all our monetary firepower to avoid the first downturn in 2007-09, so we are really at a dangerous point to try to counter the effects of a slowing China, falling commodities and EM incomes, and the ultimate First World effects. This down cycle is likely to be remembered in a hundred years . Sadly this down cycle will cause a great deal of damage, precisely because it will happen despite the efforts of the central banks to thwart it."
With economic data serially disappointing in 2015, it is probably not entirely surprising that Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index fell to an average of -2 last week (with the biggest drop since July). This is the first time the index has had a negative weekly average since late December. Both the current conditions and outlook sub-indices tumbled but it was the future 'hope' index that fell the most with more people now saying the future will be 'poor' than believe it will be 'good'.
Western "Boots On The Ground" In Ukraine: Britain Sends 75 "Military Advisers" To Combat "Russia-Backed Aggression"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/24/2015 - 14:33
In what we believe is the first touchdown of Western 'boots-on-the-ground' in Ukraine, Britain's David Cameron stated today that British military personnel are to be deployed to Ukraine for the first time in the next few weeks to provide advice and training to government troops. As The Guardian reports, Britain would be “the strongest pole in the tent”, and argued for tougher sanctions against Moscow if Russian-backed militias in eastern Ukraine failed to observe the ceasefire. The MoD said up to 75 personnel would begin to deploy to Ukraine from next month as Cameron warned sanctions could become "materially different" and held out SWIFT exclusion once again. We suspect Putin will not be impressed at the 'encroachment'.