Brazilian Real Tumbles After Senate Rejects Landmark Labor Reform Bill

Brazil's landmark labor reform bill, intended to relax the country's restrictive labor laws and a main plank of embattled President Michel Temer's efforts to bolster investment and pull the economy out of its worst recession ever and widely seen as the country's second most important reform agenda after the Pension bill, was unexpectedly rejected by a special committee in Brazil's senate, with 10 votes against it, 9 in favor and 1 abstention. 

The Middle East Is Blowing Up

Every day brings another scary headline from the Middle East — which makes it easy to treat them as background noise rather than a clear and present danger. But the latest batch is reminiscent of the Balkans circa 1914, which means it may be time to tune back in...

WTI Plunges To 7-Month Lows - Enters Bear Market As HY Bonds Crater

WTI Crude has entered a bear market (down over 20% from its highs) amid concerns OPEC-led output cuts won’t succeed in rebalancing the market (and not helped by the fact that Libya is pumping the most crude in 4 years). Furthermore, HY Bonds are getting hit led by a spike in HY Energy risk...

In Warning To Wall Street, Jefferies Fixed Income Revenue Tumbles 33%

Jefferies second quarter earnings were a warning for the rest of Wall Street: with fixed income revenues tumbling 33% in Q2 due to "lower volumes and lower volatility", suggesting that alongside the collapse of the yield curve, the coming quarter could be rather brutal for US banks.

Caterpillar Retail Sales Rise Most In 54 Months

CAT's retail sales have put the 4+ year depression in the read view mirror, and are slowly levitating higher, although like during the 2011/2012 downturn, it all depends on how "hard" China's economic slowdown will be over the coming year.

Trader: "We Need Another 20 Basis Points For The Entire Narrative To Change"

"The 2s10s spread can bear-flatten through last year’s low to accomplish the break, but I don’t think you get the dollar motoring unless the yield curve holds these levels and bear- steepens. Traders will set the bar kind of low and start getting excited if 10-year yields can breach 2.23%. But at the end of the day we need another 20 basis points for the entire narrative to change."

What Is The Market Telling Us?

The entire global economy now depends on this stripped-of-information "market" for its stability...It's difficult to see this as healthy or sustainable.

Frontrunning: June 20

  • Central bank caution beefs up stock gains (Reuters)
  • Pound Drops as BOE's Carney Says Not Yet Time to Raise Rates (BBG)
  • Oil Just Hit Its Lowest Level of the Year (BBG)
  • Britain charges Barclays, ex-bosses over 'unlawful' Qatari deal (Reuters)
  • Senate GOP Sets Ambitious Deadline on Health-Care Vote (WSJ)

Oil Plunges To November Lows On Sudden Volume Spike

"It feels like were seeing some panic that we could shoot through the YTD lows here as we retest the levels seen last November pre the OPEC meeting, with decent volumes going through the market."