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4th Attempt To Take Out 200 DMA

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yesterday we charted the third attempt to break the 200 Day Moving Average, and expected a low-volume repeat computerzied assault on the 200DMA today. Today: low volume, check, SPY hugging 200 DMA, check.... and fizzle. On the other hand, this could be a totally unrelated aberration, driven exclusively by the EUR, which attempted to take out 1.235 earlier and failed. It just so happens that this level translates into the technical resistance level for stocks. Nonetheless, with Brazil about to kick off and volume to hit zero imminently, we are confident the DMA will be taken out resolutely by Commodore 64, on the same toxic vapors that are filling up desalinization plants in Florida and the asset side of the Fed's balance sheet.

 

 

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Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:07 | 415060 trav7777
trav7777's picture

200, bitchez

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:12 | 415081 IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

Option expiration coming later this week. Got to build up a safety cushion to make sure that the shorts are scalded...

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:27 | 415111 sumo
sumo's picture

And the IPOs underwritten by Goldman. Choc full of bubblicious goodness. Pumpedy doodah. Booyah.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:07 | 415061 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Of all the recent "rallies", I have to say today's is ranking up there as one of THE most ridiculous. 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:22 | 415103 GS is short Gold
GS is short Gold's picture

it's only ridiculous now because you're short. here's some insight genius- this is the exact same  ridiculousness that made you money going long for the previous 6 months.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:35 | 415143 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

No, the other "rallies" at least had improving data to lend some air of authenticity. Also, earnings, although easy comps, also were flashing "improvement".

We don't have that now. Now we get BBY missing by a mile (and let's not forget, they're the beacon of discretionary consumer spending). We also had a couple of warnings out yesterday from another tech citing Europe as a problem.

So today's rally doesn't even have jacked up data to back it up. On the contrary, it sort of sucked.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:38 | 415152 jbc77
jbc77's picture

Isn't a rally characterzied by people acutally buying stocks, mutual funds? In modern terms a rally is nothing more than prop desks playing hot potato with the bids. So yes, this rally is total BS. The more days we have like this, where no one buys yet the market cranks.....the better the chance of an all out no-bid market cratering.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:02 | 415218 GS is short Gold
GS is short Gold's picture

at some point people will realize news doesn't mean shit. It never really has. That's especially true today with the bots controlling everything.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:23 | 415107 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

How so?  There was good news this morning...

The regional Fed’s “Empire State Index,” generally the first economic indicator in a given month, rose to a 19.6 reading, from 19.1 in April, the regional Fed said.

Er...  Never mind the rest of the story, that's enough for a Bloomberg headline...

Readings above zero indicate expansion, while below that shows contraction. The index’s reading was below economists’ forecasts of a 20 reading, Bloomberg reported.

 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:55 | 415203 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

There was good news this morning...

 


Exclusive: Al Gore Cheats with Larry David's Ex

 

H/T  DRUDGEREPORT.COM

 

Looking forward to the new season of Curb

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:11 | 415235 BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

Don't hate on the oversold rally.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:08 | 415062 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

They really don't want to let it fall. It's already printed the tape. I don't why they even believe they can erase it.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:10 | 415069 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Thar she blows! Cupcake island!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:12 | 415076 jbc77
jbc77's picture

Tyler.....Yahoo Finance headline stated "Market relieved by success of european bond auctions."

The article went on to tout some talking head spewing how safe Europe & their bonds are. He says appetite for euro risk is back with a vengance.

Thats where some of my lunch went through my nose due to laughter.

 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:29 | 415116 sumo
sumo's picture

Spanish bank debt and real estate bubble, 20% unemployment, yum yum yum.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:46 | 415184 zen0
zen0's picture

Democracy could ‘collapse’ in Greece, Spain and Portugal unless urgent action is taken to tackle the debt crisis, the head of the European Commission has warned.

In an extraordinary briefing to trade union chiefs last week, Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso set out an ‘apocalyptic’ vision in which crisis-hit countries in southern Europe could fall victim to military coups or popular uprisings as interest rates soar and public services collapse because their governments run out of money.

The stark warning came as it emerged that EU chiefs have begun work on an emergency bailout package for Spain which is likely to run into hundreds of billions of pounds. 

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1286480/EU-chief-warns-democracy-disappear-Greece-Spain-Portugal.html#ixzz0qwrTswX3
Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:13 | 415083 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

"To the Moon Alice"!  We broke it, raped it, and took pictures. Shorts will be getting covered this afternoon, still holding onto my TNA for now. 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:13 | 415086 Remington IV
Remington IV's picture

Tin Foil Hat .... check

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:19 | 415092 BeerGoggles
BeerGoggles's picture

Sell off into the end of the day again...

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:21 | 415099 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Seems to be too much euphoria by the computers today for that to happen. Looks like they've opened her up to run back to 1150 area.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:20 | 415093 kaiten
kaiten's picture

Yeah, Commodore 64. That was a machine. Best computer, ever! ;) And Amiga wasnt bad either.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:22 | 415101 Deflationburger...
Deflationburger with Fleas's picture

I'm not covering until after the eco data tomorrow morning.  I don't give a rat's ass if it breaks me - no way I risk being out of the market for what I feel will be an eye opener in the morning.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:23 | 415106 Let them all fail
Let them all fail's picture

which data?

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:31 | 415131 Deflationburger...
Deflationburger with Fleas's picture

8:30 AM

Housing Starts

8:30 AM

Building Permits

8:30 AM

PPI

8:30 AM

Core PPI

9:15 AM

Capacity Utilization

9:15 AM

Industrial Production

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:29 | 415115 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Which is why I'm selling my TNA and buying more TZA 5 min to close :)

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:24 | 415108 A_MacLaren
A_MacLaren's picture

Bubble Days are here again. 

Not.

When, not if, when this sucker implodes, it's gonna be a MOAB (mother of all breakdowns).

 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:40 | 415162 sumo
sumo's picture

Bad news from Spain could trigger it.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:44 | 415173 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

I hope you are not referring to the World Cup game tomorrow.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:25 | 415109 Muir
Muir's picture

TD

"On the other hand, this could be a totally unrelated aberration, driven exclusively by the EUR, which attempted to take out 1.235 earlier and failed. It just so happens that this level translates into the technical resistance level for stocks."

__

That is the melt-up.

Didn't someone here say that we were all FX traders now?

 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:29 | 415117 Brett in Manhattan
Brett in Manhattan's picture

Ironically, a crude trend formula, that a child could use, the 200dma, got you out of stocks in May '08 at ~13k.

Meanwhile, Jizzface Jim Cramer calls his Oct '08 10k sell call (two months after his July bottom call) one of the two greatest calls of his "career."

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:31 | 415130 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Cramer is one the biggest douchebags in douchebag history.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:07 | 415227 Bear
Bear's picture

Douchebag History ... Somehow, I missed that course.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:46 | 415185 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

It can tell you alot about gold too. All you gotta do is watch the 200 day ma on it. If it get's too steep it sets off a feed me alarm with a few 30 day ma sell offs.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:30 | 415125 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

And there it sits. 1111.

No way they allow a repeat of yesterday. SP charges thru. Sets off buy stops and closes at 1120.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:31 | 415132 tictawk
tictawk's picture

There is a "ramp job" every option expiry week which is the third weed of the month.  This is a quarterly expiry and the "put sellers" who are in control given that they are primary dealers for the most part, are screwing the put buyers who were hugely in the money not too long ago. 

This time they will break the market out above the 200 dma.  Short sellers only now need watch the 200 dma failure.  1085ish on the S&P futures would be a sell signal.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:35 | 415144 Nolsgrad
Nolsgrad's picture

It's like there a bunch of munchkins under there...

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THbY7EL8k5w

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:37 | 415149 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

If SPX can't convincing hold the 200 dma today, it's going to be a problem.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:38 | 415157 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

until tomorrow

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:38 | 415156 London Dude Trader
London Dude Trader's picture

Hey Tyler, are you watching Matt Simmons on Bloomberg TV? Among other things he said he's embarassed by Simmons & Co's upgrade of BP. He still thinks BP will go bust. 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:41 | 415166 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Hold onto your balls everyone, we're about to drop real fast.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:42 | 415169 PlausibleDenial
PlausibleDenial's picture

Point & figure has a upward reversal at 112, but then again I am not sure I know what the f.... I am doing.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:43 | 415170 BeerGoggles
BeerGoggles's picture

1hr is overbought on SPY. sell it now :)

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:44 | 415178 Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

Today's rally smacks of desperation.  They've taken the market up on zero volume which is giving longs an excellent point to get out.  The winners this years will be the funds that were patient in selling the rallies. 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:14 | 415242 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

You cannot blame him.  I would rather bang Laurie David anyday than Tipper Gore. 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:49 | 415190 London Dude Trader
London Dude Trader's picture

It's been pretty easy for the market pump fuckers this week. With China on holiday until Thursday and consequently zero volume in Japan and HK, this week there's been no overnight drop in ES. Consequently the customary 10-handle ES levitation in the European morning has started from a higher level than normal.   

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:49 | 415194 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Buy baby, BUY!!!!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:06 | 415226 Muir
Muir's picture

__

 

You mean short the dollar right?

 

__

Oh, that's the same thing isn't it?

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:24 | 415269 GS is short Gold
GS is short Gold's picture

this is why everybody hates you.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:31 | 415283 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Getting squeezed hard today? Cut your losses fast! LOL!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:40 | 415295 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Nope, actually I am not.  In fact I am about to add to my TZA holdings.  Thanks HFT for making me happier about shorting this sham.

 

P.S.  Think tomorrow economic numbers will be good?  My guess is not, but only time will tell.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:36 | 415296 GS is short Gold
GS is short Gold's picture

not really. I have Jun calls, and July puts. This squeeze was as predictable as your moronic posts. I was just stating a fact- everybody hates you.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 17:39 | 415320 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Stop, you're hurting my feelings. I take it to heart when a sub-moron throws insults my way.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:51 | 415334 Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

Why would anyone hate Leo?  He provides pictures of hot women.  Besides, he offers an opinion - how is that bad?

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 14:57 | 415209 Bankster T Cubed
Bankster T Cubed's picture

nonstop evil

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:09 | 415232 Brett in Manhattan
Brett in Manhattan's picture

I predict that no matter what happens in the last hour someone here will say it was predictable.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:14 | 415243 monmick
monmick's picture

I knew you were going to say that...

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:54 | 415342 Brett in Manhattan
Brett in Manhattan's picture

lol

15:36
#415296

not really. I have Jun calls, and July puts. This squeeze was as predictable as your moronic posts. I was just stating a fact- everybody hates you.

____

And, for the record, I like Leo. I just wouldn't listen to his stock picks.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:30 | 415280 Young
Young's picture

This "rally" won't die until most people here give up, Tyler included?

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:30 | 415281 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Tyler, didn't you say a few dozens of posts ago that if the Nikkei broke 9800 that the market would rise?

 

It broke it yesterday, and now we rise :)

I actually kept a eye on it and started buying calls when it got back over 9600.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:35 | 415291 BeerGoggles
BeerGoggles's picture

I suck at trading in light volume. I should know to just buy but I can't stop myself from shorting this market!

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 19:27 | 415901 Advoc8tr
Advoc8tr's picture

I thought I was the only one ..... cold comfort really.  The minute you give up it will turn around.

Wed, 06/16/2010 - 04:19 | 416658 Mesquite
Mesquite's picture

My kind of 'luck'...

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:35 | 415294 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

The real battle is at the /ES 200 dma sitting around 1108.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:37 | 415300 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Keeping my chips.  May short if this stupid rally extends further.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 15:48 | 415330 akenathon
akenathon's picture

And how many attempts on Gold already?

Next move will be simply huge as with Euro moving up it's up and in case Euro and the markets go down, upmove gonna be huge...

Everyone is short at current levels

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 16:04 | 415345 BeerGoggles
BeerGoggles's picture

Everyone is short at current levels

Actually, today's COT report shows slight net longs from the large traders.

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 16:18 | 415399 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Well, I got today wrong and sold my TNA a little too early.  Was expecting a late day sell off from the HF's wanting to recoupe some losses.  Oh well, better to be safe than sorry. 

Tue, 06/15/2010 - 16:30 | 415430 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

Gee people can't you see it's the end of Q2 market up.

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