As Dollar Poleaxing Continues, Silver Takes Off

Tyler Durden's picture

As the dollar is getting its daily dose of poleaxing, the natural currency substitutes do their usual thing.

And some updated thoughts from FMX on the next steps for gold.

Gold Momentum Indicator Triggered. Breakout Imminent above $1412.00

Last week we stated that Gold was on our radar to trigger a move higher using our Trend-Vol system, possibly as high as 1550 within 8 weeks.  The indicator combines implied, historical and Bollinger Band levels into an oscillator that generates volatility based risk-reward scenarios. Last week, we had to settle above 14.15 for the trigger to go off. It did not. But this week the number is 1412.

Each oval below was a trigger moment. We are at one of those now.

http://www.fmxconnect.com/fmxmetalsconnect/image.axd?picture=WindowsLiveWriter/GoldMomentumIndicatorTriggered.Breako.00/10C5344F/clip_image001.jpg

This week the market has to settle above 1412, which we are currently over. The alert is triggering. This is a weekly settlement price to be a true trigger, but we are not comfortable waiting for Friday’s settlement. We are also not interested in disobeying our own rules too much. So here is our compromise.

Here is what we are doing in our personal accounts:

1. Every day we settle above 1412 we are buying into 20% of our position with expectations of being fully “in” by Friday. (We prefer options)

2. If we settle under 1412 on any of these days, we won’t add

3. Consider decreasing or closing positions if we settle under 1412

4. The signal will be negated if we settle under 1412 for the week.

This system  uses volatility to determine if a move will follow though. It tries to catch the moment when volatility is reversing. Expect to buy into strength if it is right. Buying dips is not a good sign.

If we get a settle above 1412 this week, there is a high likelihood of a strong follow through to the upside over the next month starting with an initial spike higher 2 weeks from now.

Once this week is over and  if we have our full position on, our stop loss will be the previous week’s settlement area of 1409 settlement

Good Luck.

 

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Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

C'Mon $35!!!!!   I know you can do it...

Chuck Norris's picture

I'm cheering Silver on to Infinity (in terms of dollars)

snowball777's picture

Is it true that Comex Ag takes delivery of you?

66Sexy's picture

I would buy physical platinum now, as an alternative oil appreciation play, and a PM inflation play. Price has not run up like the other metals; much rarer occurance, and lower downside with much smaller market.

Imo anything like pt, pd, silver or oil that requires work to create and is then reused in industry is not a passive commodity; but the same as 'work' itself. They are a store of work, productivity, and value; so it's the same as buying a company that makes profits. That company must reinvest their capital back into work; and the corporate costs associated with replacing work means the actual costs to replace work get priced into and enhance the value of the physical commodity.

 

jpmorrisaggie's picture

Any thoughts on where to get non physical exposure to platinum 66Sexy?

Flakmeister's picture

  SWC... the finest PGM deposit and mine in the Western Hemisphere. I am leery of ETFs that claim physical possesion. After all, it still a piece of paper, much like SWC, but at least with SWC, I know where the Pd and Pt is.

ms1408's picture

The human trafficking trade also has counter-party risk. They need clearing houses too you know.

MolotovCockhead's picture

I'm cheering Silver on to Infinity (in terms of dollars)

 

If you are cheering Silver to infinity, it means you are jeering Uncle Scam into inevitable collapse, you know? Not a patriotic thing to do if you are an American. Think I'll stand aside to watch history in the making.

bingaling's picture

I am cheering silver to as high as possible until the federal reserve, politicians, and financial industry ceo's/boards stop their destruction of our currenncy and our nation . Is that better ?

jpmorrisaggie's picture

You know, my thoughts on that are that it is more like jeering the current leadership into inevitable collapse.  I, for one, am an advocate of this as my feelings towards our leaders have ranged from relatively unhappy to vein popping frustration for quite some time.  If that means things get worse over here for a while, so be it.  So long as I can wake up in the morning and see some hope for the future instead of staring into the abyss!

TeMpTeK's picture

While you are standing around watching history take place... bernanke is robbing you blind...We lost our great nation years ago....There is no reset button absent a dollar collapse and potential revolt...The US as we know it has some major self inflicted wounds....no one is cheering for what we know Is inevitable... I would only hope that from her ashes we will once again regain what made our nation great.. Truly Free Markets, Repect for property rights and the rule of law, The death of political corectness, An end to corporate lobbying and special interests..There is still some hopium left in me... but things are going to get really ugly b4 they get better. Standing by and watching idly is a recipe for disaster. Prepare prepare prepare.....

akak's picture

If you are cheering Silver to infinity, it means you are jeering Uncle Scam into inevitable collapse, you know? Not a patriotic thing to do if you are an American.

Fuck Uncle Sam, and the horse he rode in on.  I owe allegiance to NO government, least of all to one that is increasingly authoritarian, oppressive, and robbing its citizens blind for the benefit of a relative handful of well-connected sociopathic oligarchs.

As for your "patriotism", that word properly defined refers to the love of and devotion to one's nation, NOT one's government!  I love my country, but I hate my government --- and all government in general, which institution is merely institutionalized coercion and force, and far and away the biggest blight on humanity since the dawn of civilization.

SilverRhino's picture

I give my allegiance to my country, not its government and certainly not its central bank. 

JW n FL's picture

The Problem we all will face at some point will be... that our Government is duely elected by "We the People"... thusly our fight with those idiots will become a fight against "We the People"... or so the Marines / Army / Navy could say (I dont mention the airforce becuase they miss 60% of what they aim at... I have a better chance of getting into a car accident than being hit after being targeted by them.

 

So, what kind of signature drive... with some type of credentials attached... do we start to oust these idiots?

 

Or, what other means do we have to prove popular support for the Monkey's driving the bus is no longer in place?

 

I am stuck. Honestly... Help anyone and all with Ideas??? Thanks in Advance!!!!!!!!!!

StychoKiller's picture

I would suggest a tax strike but one person on their own would just wind up in a jail cell.  If there existed one place where one could place an ENCRYPTED registration, along with some sort of counter, reflecting the number of strikers, then once an amount of over 10 million registered, I think that there's not enough cells (even in the USA) to house all the strikers, especially when the guards start receiving IOUs in place of a paycheck!

SilverFiend's picture

Uncle Sam is heading to its inevitable collapse

just fine on its own.  By preparing ones self for

this eventuality and being ready to pick up the

pieces is the most "patriotic" thing you can do.

Chuck Norris's picture

The collapse is inevitable... sooner or later it will happen. 

I'm not looking to Uncle Sam to save us.  Only Jesus can save us now. 

 

FeralSerf's picture

He was deported by the INS.

 

Clayton Bigsby's picture

Daddy needs a new pair of cufflinks!  And some Maples!

JW n FL's picture

I think the Mint in Canada may be out of Maples... sorry, but good luck with those cufflinks.

jus_lite_reading's picture

Relax. My prediction of $40 in ~3 weeks will come to fruition.

Azannoth's picture

Psychic delivery, bitchez!

Sircornflakes's picture

You can't wait until Friday...so you pull trigger on Monday?

 

C'mon, can't you wait until Wednesday?

klevera's picture

When zerohedge uploads this information i get nervous lol

Is it a top of silver?

rosiescenario's picture

Me too....but then I envisionage Ben flying a B-52 over NYC with a contrail of paper following it....and then I relax....there is a finite amount of silver and a limit on its production, but Ben is only bounded by paper and ink supplies, neither of which appear to be tight.

Jreb's picture

LMAO. Yep. I think the fundamentals will be in place for a while....

spartan117's picture

Quick, somebody call Meth Man!

snowball777's picture

doo-duh-deee....the phone number you have attempted to dial is no longer in service.

Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

I think I saw a Ferrari crshing into a beach house this morning on my way to work...

spartan117's picture

Junk away, Meth Maggot, Johnny Butthole, Smelly Snails!  Silver at $34, bitchez!

whatsinaname's picture

why the sudden drop in dollah last few days (not that I mind my silvah upppity uppity) ?

MolotovCockhead's picture

why the sudden drop in dollah last few days

 

Yeah, why the drastic drop? Isn't dollar suppose to be a safe heaven when the world around is in chaos, like now? Looks like the light at the end of the tunnel is coming from a freight train!

StychoKiller's picture

Someone spending FRNs for Oil barrels, perhaps?

Arthor Bearing's picture

Either this week or at the end of next month silver is gonna blow everyone's mind away forever. Buy bitchez buy!

slow_roast's picture

Buy the hump bitchez!!!

yabyum's picture

Not much of a hump, more like a friggen rocket. GPL is kicking major ass this am.

financeguru500's picture

I don't consider the dollar being devalued until it drops below $70. Anything between $70-85 is just adjustments according to level of the stockmarket. It is almost too easy to predict. Dow hits 13000 = dollar at around $74. Dow hits 10000 = dollar at $80. When the dow gets back up to 14000 or more, the dollar should be around $71 to 73.

How do I figure in my predictions? It is easy. Capital goes from investment to safety depending on current economic conditions. Though lately it seems to be opposite (i.e. bad news unemployment = dow goes up). But it is a seesaw effect, when the dow is up the dollar is down and vice versa.

Internet Tough Guy's picture

The dollar is being devalued against real things; I don't care what its value is against other fiat currency. I don't go to the store to buy euros, yen (which are also devaluing against real things); I go to buy food and gas and yes the dollar is being devalued.

financeguru500's picture

+1

And that is the interesting part. If the dollar is being devalued in real terms, why isn't it showing up on the dollar index?

Any ideas?

mick_richfield's picture

because the dollar index -- the usdx -- is a trade-weighted basket of equally-meaningless fiat currencies.

there is no honest measure of the dollar-against-things aside from shadowstats' cpi measures.

 

fed delenda est.

 

 

gmrpeabody's picture

Or the price of gold in dollars. That's usually a good indicator.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

 

@ mick_richfield,

I now know it was you who wrote Fed delenda est!  So now I can attribute properly in future posts.  In the meantime:

 

Show us our Gold!   FED delenda est!

Turtlelord's picture

Well, depends which other fiat currencies you look at.

Have a look at CHF (Swiss Franc) for the last year or so.

In fact CHF is so overvalued (due to its status as a safe currency and SNB's large physical gold holdings), that in a doomed attempt to keep the CHF competitive it shorted it and lost CHF 21 (~24 USD) billion in a few short months.