Contributing Editors' Blog Entries
Back to Business as Usual?
Submitted by Leo Kolivakis on 10/01/2009 - 21:40 A year after the financial disaster of 2008, the search is on for investing’s winners and for its casualties. There are surprisingly few of either.
Looking at the Economy Through Gray Colored Glasses
Submitted by Econophile on 10/01/2009 - 17:48 Why do economists keep getting it wrong? How can we ever trust what they say again after their miserable performance before the crash? They see what they want to see. Sheep. If we've learned anything it's to ignore mainstream economists. Listen to the outliers because the mainstream never gets it right. Here's today's data brought to you by an outlier. Remember to be skeptical.
H2SO4 – LEI?
Submitted by Bruce Krasting on 10/01/2009 - 17:23 Sulfuric acid is a backbone commodity for the economy. If you think the Vol. on oil is high take a look at the price action for this stuff. What's next is the big question. The current price is at a five year low. Looking at history it could be 300% higher in a year.
It’s October 1, S&P down 20 pts, you’re Chairman of the Fed. What do you do?
Submitted by EB on 10/01/2009 - 11:52 You stare down into the solid gold basin in the second floor executive washroom on C Street, chuckling lowly to yourself. The memory of the impertinent Congressman asking the location of the Fed’s gold—your gold—fades. You catch a glimpse of your perfectly coiffed beard and immediately sober, then smile wryly at your reflection. The shorts are feeding again at the S&P trough, feeling confident. Let them be confident.Have Global Financial Risks Subsided?
Submitted by Leo Kolivakis on 09/30/2009 - 21:59 Let me just say that the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report is an excellent document that every serious money manager needs to read carefully. It provides an outstanding overview of global financial system. I went through it today and concluded that global financial risks have subsided but banks are by no means out of the woods. The semiannual report struck me as one of cautious optimism.
Bloggers Run the World - Thanks for the Confirmation
Submitted by Static Chaos on 09/30/2009 - 18:18 An article by The Hill dated 9/20/09 quoted President Obama as saying"...I am concerned that if the direction of the news is all blogosphere, all opinions, with no serious fact-checking, no serious attempts to put stories in context, that what you will end up getting is people shouting at each other across the void but not a lot of mutual understanding..." Since President Obama confirmed that bloggers do run the world, I’d like to dedicate this blog to respond to his comments.
Additional thoughts on Japan and US interest rates
Submitted by Vitaliy Katsenelson on 09/30/2009 - 14:26 Japan I was on CNBC a few days ago discussing the Japan debt situation, here are my talking points and some additional thoughts a lot of them I did not have a chance to cover in the previous note or the interview.
This Sounds Familiar
Submitted by thetechnicaltake on 09/30/2009 - 09:30 Traders are positioned for a reversal of the down trend in the Dollar Index. Watch out below if it doesn't materialize.A National Sales Tax is Coming
Submitted by Econophile on 09/30/2009 - 01:13 The national sales tax is no longer idle talk. I guarantee that it is coming soon because Obama is running out of money and they're panicking about paying for the deficit. They just can't tax the rich enough to pay for it. Tomorrow starts the official vetting of the tax.
Central Banks: The Pimps of the World Economy
Submitted by smartknowledgeu on 09/29/2009 - 23:55 Central Banks All global economic problems today are rooted in the existence of Central Banks and their commitment to an application of destructive Keynesian economic theories to our global monetary system that simply has not worked for the better part of this century. Within the realm of academics, monetary policy, politics and media, there is a persistent refusal to acknowledge the primary role Central Banks undertake in artificially creating boom-bust cycles that would not occur in such severe fashion were Central Banks simply willing to step out of the way and allow free market forces to operate.
Retail/Apparel Stocks Back to Pre-Crash Levels, Huh?
Submitted by Anal_yst on 09/29/2009 - 23:29 With the exception of a few, many retail/apparel stocks are back to - or in some cases even higher - than their pre-bubble valuations. Someone remind me, unemployment is where, again?Are Hedge Funds Worth It?
Submitted by Leo Kolivakis on 09/29/2009 - 22:23 A lot of hedge funds are hurting but most are doing well because they're riding the Beta Express up while charging alpha fees to their investors. Take it from me, hedge funds are no no panacea. And in many cases, they are pure con artists peddling snake oil.Fed's Fisher Speaks - Geithner Cringes
Submitted by Bruce Krasting on 09/29/2009 - 22:17 Fisher More tough talk from a Fed Governor. The problem with talking tough is if you do not back it up with action you look soft. If that is the way this plays out the weak link is still the dollar. If they raise rates as they say they will it is going to dramatically increase the cost of funding the mega-trillions of short term debt that Geithner has floated on our behalf.
Fed or Freight, Roll Your Dice
Submitted by asiablues on 09/29/2009 - 17:56 Currently, the great market debate seems to center around two chief concerns: Have stocks jumped ahead of the economic recovery? And if so, are they setting up for a big correction? To better gauge the real economic condition, I typically like to look at commercial trade related indicators to verify just how good or bad business is doing. One of the most ignored leading economic indicators is probably freight volume. A review of some key freight indices should provides a much more sobering picture of the US economy.