Contributing Editors' Blog Entries

Reggie Middleton's picture

Today's banks are much more complex than LTVs and 2nd liens, but when these risky products on the downturn are multiples of your tangible capital, it really doesn't take more than that to start causing some severe solvency issues. You can have a trillion dollars in assets, but if you have $20 billion in equity with $100 billion in investments that will take a 50% loss, you are underwater by $30 billion. You can talk about these banks using terms such as "complicated", "complex", "fancy" and all of the other high falutin' adjectives that you can think of, but at the end of the day, if you lose more than you own you are insolvent. Now, that's a simple concept and it works quite well for my investment pursuits.

Reggie Middleton's picture

As you recall, my take on the deflation vs inflation debate is much less crystal ball-ish than many other pundits on the web. I never was very much into fortune telling or forecasting the future. From what I observed and researched, if I had to make a call that call would be stagflation.

On that note, here is an interesting note from one of my site's subscribers on how China is exporting to what is amounting to stagflation to the United States, now!

madhedgefundtrader's picture

Let’s Try Chinese Style Securities Regulation. Just execute the bastards! Great for the human organ business, but not so good for crime prevention, or getting your money back. The urban legend about a vast secret complex of government concentration camps is true. The next kidney up for sale may be yours.

Leo Kolivakis's picture

According to the C.D. Howe Institute and the British-North American Committee, the governments of the UK, US and Canada are understating the true cost of public sector pension plans. If true, then you got the seeds to the next debt time bomb. The hard road ahead is looking harder when you sit back and analyze the implications of all these pension liabilities, especially if you consider the possibility that they're grossly understated.

Leo Kolivakis's picture

Rush to Geneva?

Two of UK's largest hedge funds, Bluecrest and Brevan Howard, are making or considering moves out of London to Geneva. London's mayor, Boris Johnson, is worried that thousands of the City's bankers will flee to escape higher taxes and more regulations. Will the rush to Geneva spell trouble for global regulators?

Bruce Krasting's picture

Another 'Sneaky Pete'?

Just another day at the office. Treasury, Fannie, Freddie and HUD have completed a sweet deal. Another $30b down a hole. But his time it won't cost us a cent. Honest, really, this time it'll be different. Lies.