Contributing Editors' Blog Entries

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

 

I’m going to lay out everything you need to know about the fiscal cliff negotiations. After reading this, you can ignore all of the media’s coverage of this topic as well as various politicians’ announcements pertaining to this subject. All you need to know consists of just one sentence. Politicians are in charge of this issue.

Burkhardt's picture

EU confidence sparks a Euro bull run. Both the EU’s strongest and weakest economies are positively shifting. The S&P has lifted Greece’s credit rating by 5 notches to a “B minus”, and Germany’s IFO survey came in strong for the second month running indicating that business sentiment is on the rise.

AVFMS's picture

Would be easy to call this boring, given the state of the market and volumes, but undercover Risk On definitively there. Greek 10s over the moon and far away (up 500 ticks)… Strong EUR. Seems a little easy, but who wants to fight? It’s Yule Time – at least until Friday, then we’ll see what the Mayans really meant.

"Oh Come All Ye Faithful" (Bunds 1,42% +0; Spain 5,25% -4; Stoxx 2658 +0,4%; EUR 1,326 +40)

Marc To Market's picture

This is one of the most revealing graphs we have posted. This Great Graphic comes from the Washington Post's Wonk blog. First, it shows that a step toward fiscal adjustment is coming to the US. The difference between Obama's plan and Boehner's is how the burden of the adjustment should be distributed. Second, chest thumping and the hand wringing that has surround the negotiations seems dramatically out of proportion on the differences. This is a case of the hubris of small differences.

Marc To Market's picture

This week's pattern remains intact. The US dollar continues to trend lower against the European currencies, but is firmer within the dollar-bloc and against the yen. Spanish and Italian bond yields are lower, while the long-end of the Japanese curve is heavy. Equity markets are finishing the year with a firm note, with board gains in Asian, with the notable exception of Shanghai and Jakarta, and in Europe, with the exception of Stockholm. The euro is at 7-month highs today, pushing toward $1.3300. The next target is near $1.3385. Sterling has been bid to near the year's high set in late September just above $1.6300. There is little chart resistance until closer to $1.6500. The dollar's slide against the Swiss franc has extended to CHF0.91 and appears headed for CHF0.9000. The dollar-bloc is not participating in this move against the greenback. This week, for example, the New Zealand dollar has fallen as almost as much as the yen (1.03% and 1.08% respectively). The Australian and Canadian dollars are off 0.04% and 0.57% respectively. There are a few macro-developments to note: