Premium$1.4 Trillion In AI Spending, 0.2% Of GDP Growth: Goldman Explains Where The AI Boom Goes Missing
The AI capex boom is big enough to see from space. It is just very hard to find in the GDP data.
That is the paradox at the heart of Goldman's freshly published 2027 capex outlook ("2027 Capex Outlook: How Much of an AI Boost?", available to pro subs), in which economist Jessica Rindels estimates that US spending on AI hardware and software will top $900 billion annualized by the end of this year and hit $1.4 trillion by end-2027, roughly 4% of US GDP. And yet, by the bank's math, the direct boost to measured GDP growth from all that spending will be... 0.2 percentage points. In both years.
