Peak AI Impulse: Goldman Says Wealth Effect Has Topped As Oil, Yields And Layoffs Gang Up On 2027, Reversing AI Boost

Ever wonder how much of the "resilient consumer" was really just the Nasdaq?

According to Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius, the answer is about a quarter of a percent of GDP. In his latest "Global Views: Downside Growth Risks" note (available to pro subs), Hatzius estimates that AI-driven stock gains boosted US consumer spending growth via a wealth effect worth 0.4pp, or 0.25% of GDP, over the past year. And now that tailwind, like the rest of the AI growth impulse, is rolling over.

Global Growth Is Boring... And That Was The Good News