73% Odds Of Another Puke: BTIG Says Today's Bounce Is A Coin-Toss, Not A "Fat Pitch"

Last Thursday, the music finally stopped.

Three days after BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky warned of a "correlation-one selloff, when oversold can't bounce and overbought begins to correct", the market delivered precisely that: the Nasdaq 100 broke 4.8% below its 200DMA in one of the deepest such breaks on record, the Philly semi index lost 12% on the week, and the S&P suffered its worst week since April 2025. Most notably, the NYSE printed its first 80% downside volume day in nearly a year, ending what Krinsky calls "the longest streak in at least 30 years."

Heads, You Get A Bounce. Tails, You Get Another 80% Day