Goldman Now Expects A Third Rate Hike In March 2027, Followed By Rate Cuts Starting In December 2027

Following yesterday's surprisingly hot (for a 3rd consecutive month) CPI print, Goldman economist David Mericle published his take on the October CPI surprise - "the
upside surprise was driven by firmer-than-expected readings in a broad set of categories" - and updated his Fed outlook, adding a third 25bp hike in March 2027, pushing the peak funds rate to 4.25–4.50% and delaying the start of cuts to December 2027. 

Here are the highlights from this revised view: