"Higher Ground": Rabobank Says The Fed Pushed The 10Y To 5%... Then The Debt Took Over

Since the 10Y first broke above 5% on Sept 23, Wall Street has offered no shortage of explanations: oil, Warsh, AI, Japan, France, the Fed's "original sin." Rabobank's senior US strategist Philip Marey has now done the forensic work, and the answer is that there were two separate selloffs.

In his latest US Special, aptly titled "Higher Ground" (available to pro subs), Marey splits the 10Y into its pieces and finds that the move to 5% belonged to the Fed, while the leap above it belonged to Uncle Sam's balance sheet:

Story One: The Fed Did The Heavy Lifting (Until Sept 23)